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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Hancock Whitney Corporation (XNAS:HWC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
HWC
Name:
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION (XNAS:HWC)
Sector:
269.18M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Hairston
Total Employees:
3,486
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION(HWC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.52
One Month Price Target:
$47.89
Six Month Price Target :
$49.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.13
This week:
$39.93
This month :
$32.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
85.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.91%
-23.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.26
$56.02
$31.78
$39.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.11
$41.36
$42.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
HWC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.07%
Comparison:
HWC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 68.55% higher than the industry
& is -9.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
HWC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.63%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 79.59% above industry average
Classification:
HWC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
HWC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.86%
Monthly Volatility:
15.72%
Yearly Volatility:
54.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.14%
Weekly VaR:
-15.96%
Monthly VaR:
-31.93%
How Much Can the price of
HWC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$34.55
This translates to price declining to:
$7.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
HWC is a 125.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 93.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.08% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
HWC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.909
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.286
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.31
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.939
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.071
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.061
Beta is 30.48% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 43.64% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.30%
Sustainable growth rate is 12.87% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.070
Alpha is 500.25% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 443% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
HWC
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is 29.54% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.21%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is 5.09% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.42% below industry average
EPS:
$5.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.95%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -0.56% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.47
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.49%
Equity growth rate per share is -88.41% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.81
EBITDA per share
$7.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
HWC
P/E Ratio:
8.2
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.37
P/E ratio is -20.91% lower than main peers & is -33.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $67.13
HWC is -29.21% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $18.64
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.55
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.16
Price to sales ratio is -26.04% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.18
Price to free cash flow: 7.35
Price to free cash flow ratio is -66.56% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.44%
Net income growth rate is -30.20% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.96%
Dividend yeild: 2.27%
Previous Dividend: $0.27
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.27
Previous Dividend: $1.08
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-03--$0.27
2021-12-03--$0.27
2021-06-04--$0.27
2022-03-03--$0.27
2021-09-03--$0.27
2021-03-05--$0.27
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
53.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.24
Interest coverage ratio is 1859.29% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.67%
Annual debt growth is -2205% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.644
Statistical significance of correlation:
HWC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 28.71% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.098
Kurtosis
8.017
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.103
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
HWC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.59%
Effective tax rate is -13.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.90%
Return on equity (ROE) is 16.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -42.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 18.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.10%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
369.4K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
191.7K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
137.6K
Each employee generates -3% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
77.2K
Each employee generates -7% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -7% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
HWC
UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:UMPQ)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHF)
PACIFIC PREMIER BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:PPBI)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFC)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGRP)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAP)
AMERIS BANCORP (XNAS:ABCB)
WINTRUST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WTFCM)
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SIGI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.29B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
318.91M
-
553.59M
563.55M
9.96M
- 37318.00K
103.79M
968.26M
41.15M
38.02M
668.20M
-
479.52M
589.02M
109.50M
479.52M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.93M
Differed Income Tax :
10.10M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.29M
Change in Working Capital :
152.60M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 634.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 21859.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
280.53M
Investments in PP&E:
- 11353.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 620215.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
-
3.13B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.61B
-
-
-
36.32B
36.32B
-
1.62B
-
-
-
1.62B
240.45M
-
240.45M
31.49B
32.87B
2.05B
1.76B
- 359276.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
3.45B
36.32B
14.75B
1.86B
1.9B
966.92M
- 259829.00K
75.52M
- 79.00K
-
- 18490.00K
- 23804.00K
- 11462.00K
- 53835.00K
-
302.22M
703.42M
401.20M
280.53M
- 11353.00K
269.18M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
HWC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.58
$66.21
$72.37
$79.11
$86.46