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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Guardant Health, Inc. (XNAS:GH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GH
Name:
GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)
Sector:
- 51319.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Helmy Eltoukhy
Total Employees:
1,373
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.97% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GUARDANT HEALTH, INC.(GH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.11
One Month Price Target:
$53.34
Six Month Price Target :
$54.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$55.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$52.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.59
This week:
$43.
This month :
$32.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.4%
-22.48%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.10
$64.50
$32.12
$41.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$61.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.33
$44.81
$46.89
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GH
Sharpe Ratio:
0.90%
Comparison:
GH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -64.32% lower than the industry
& is -60.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GH
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.93%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -60.19% below industry average
Classification:
GH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
GH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.17%
Weekly Volatility:
9.32%
Monthly Volatility:
18.64%
Yearly Volatility:
64.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 32.39% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.52%
Weekly VaR:
-19.04%
Monthly VaR:
-38.08%
How Much Can the price of
GH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.50
This translates to price declining to:
$7.97
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GH is a 168.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.98% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.487
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.689
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.221
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.297
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.747
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.121
Beta is -29.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -33.55% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.026
Alpha is -84.49% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 165% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GH
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -24.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.15%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.15%
WACC is -64.14% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -80.14% below industry average
EPS:
-$4.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
68.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 154.23% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$13.31
EBITDA per share
-$3.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
GH
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
219.99
-
-
GH is -134.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.88
Price to sales ratio is 46.07% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.18
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.96%
Net income growth rate is -118.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
255.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
150.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
63.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 31.50% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-152.25
Interest coverage ratio is 442.78% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
68.99%
Annual debt growth is -33% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.462
Statistical significance of correlation:
GH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -5.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.092
Kurtosis
3.281
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.373
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
271%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-109.05%
Operating profit margin is -3.07% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
271%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.04%
Effective tax rate is -100.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-78.65%
Return on equity (ROE) is -474.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-19.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -92.70% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.8x
Current Ratio:
4.87
Current ratio is -2.10% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
65.6
Cash conversion cycle is 32.23% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.92%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
284.8K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 285.5K
Each employee generates -1051% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 305.3K
Each employee generates -2009% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 37.4K
Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
740.2K
Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 75.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4301.35% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GH
GOODRX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDRX)
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)
ZAI LAB LIMITED (XNAS:ZLAB)
DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)
MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)
ICON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ICLR)
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
391.09M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
126.15M
264.94M
289.47M
179.97M
401.95M
221.98M
-
691.42M
3.16M
2.58M
24.46M
- 392037.00K
- 426476.00K
- 419240.00K
- 400474.00K
166.00K
- 419240.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.20M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
24.80M
Change in Working Capital :
50.16M
Accounts Receivables:
13.30M
Other Working Capital:
12.91M
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.45M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 28619.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 22700.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 176492.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
573.60M
388.66M
962.27M
84.33M
36.61M
30.07M
1.11B
339.93M
3.29M
13.73M
588.45M
-
70.92M
1.02B
-
2.13B
32.23M
16.56M
4.40M
10.57M
169.45M
228.81M
1.36B
6.91M
1.37B
-
1.60B
1.00K
- 1131053.00K
- 18314.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
817.56M
533.04M
2.13B
977.12M
1.38B
803.8M
310.00M
-
110.81M
- 18.00K
-
-
-
6.00K
- 12.00K
- 792.00K
81.39M
573.67M
492.29M
- 28619.00K
- 22700.00K
- 51319.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.09
$59.04
$62.16
$65.44
$68.89