Guardant Health, Inc. (XNAS:GH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

Name:

GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)

Sector:

- 51319.00K

Industry:

Diagnostics & Research

CEO:

Mr. Helmy Eltoukhy

Total Employees:

1,373

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.97% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GUARDANT HEALTH, INC.(GH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

53.11

One Month Price Target:

$53.34

Six Month Price Target :

$54.51

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$55.91

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)

$52.76

Price Upper limit ($) :

$53.51

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$48.59

This week:

$43.

This month :

$32.88

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

5.23B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

102.22M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)

Highest Daily Appreciation:

16.4%

-22.48%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$74.10

$64.50

$32.12

$41.72

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$61.38

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$59.33

$44.81

$46.89

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

GH

Sharpe Ratio:

0.90%

Comparison:

GH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -64.32% lower than the industry

& is -60.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

GH

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.23%

Monthly returns:

0.93%

Yearly returns:

27.92%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -60.19% below industry average

Classification:

GH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.94

Statistical test of Returns:

GH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

4.17%

Weekly Volatility:

9.32%

Monthly Volatility:

18.64%

Yearly Volatility:

64.59%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)

Average Volatility of this Week:

5.52%

Volatility in last five trading days has been 32.39% above long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-8.52%

Weekly VaR:

-19.04%

Monthly VaR:

-38.08%

How Much Can the price of

GH

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession:

Base case (decline):

-33%

Worst case (decline):

>85%

This translates to price declining to:

$35.50

This translates to price declining to:

$7.97

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

Risk Fundamentals

GH is a 168.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.98% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

GH

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.487

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.689

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.221

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

1.297

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.747

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.121

Beta is -29.94% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta:

1.181

Beta is -33.55% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis

Alpha provided:

0.026

Alpha is -84.49% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 165% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

GH

Equity cost of capital:

0.085

Equity cost of capital is -24.15% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:

2.40%

Before-tax cost of debt:

0.19%

After-tax cost of debt:

0.15%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

0.15%

WACC is -64.14% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$3.83

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

10.18

Annual revenue growth rate is -80.14% below industry average

EPS:

-$4.13

Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):

68.24%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 154.23% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

Debt per share

$13.31

EBITDA per share

-$3.84

Valuation Analysis Today of

GH

P/E Ratio:

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

219.99

GH is -134.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

13.88

Price to sales ratio is 46.07% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

10.18

Net income growth rate (3Y):

42.96%

Net income growth rate is -118.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend History:

--$0.00

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

255.30%

Net debt to equity ratio:

150.79%

Debt to assets ratio:

63.90%

Net debt to assets ratio:

37.74%

Debt-to-asset ratio is 31.50% above industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-152.25

Interest coverage ratio is 442.78% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

68.99%

Annual debt growth is -33% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.462

Statistical significance of correlation:

GH has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of the industry with the market:

0.488

Stock price is -5.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):

0.488

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.038

Covariance of price movement with the market:

-0.092

Kurtosis

3.281

Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)

Skewness of returns:

-0.373

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

GH

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

271%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

-109.05%

Operating profit margin is -3.07% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

271%

Effective Tax Rate:

-0.04%

Effective tax rate is -100.22% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

ROA

-78.65%

Return on equity (ROE) is -474.37% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

-19.69%

Return on assets (ROA) is -92.70% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

2.8x

Current Ratio:

4.87

Current ratio is -2.10% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

65.6

Cash conversion cycle is 32.23% above industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.0 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-5.92%

In-depth Efficiency Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

284.8K

Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee:

- 285.5K

Each employee generates -1051% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee:

- 305.3K

Each employee generates -2009% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:

- 37.4K

Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

740.2K

Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 75.64%

Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4301.35% lower than the industry

Competitors/Peer firms of

GH

GOODRX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDRX)

argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)

ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)

NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)

ZAI LAB LIMITED (XNAS:ZLAB)

DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)

MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)

ICON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ICLR)

ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�8%

Buy�8%

RISK CONCERN

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