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Guardant Health, Inc. (XNAS:GH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

GH

Name:

GUARDANT HEALTH, INC. (XNAS:GH)

Sector:

- 51319.00K

Industry:

Diagnostics & Research

CEO:

Mr. Helmy Eltoukhy

Total Employees:

1,373

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -166.97% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GUARDANT HEALTH, INC.(GH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

53.11

One Month Price Target:

$53.34

Six Month Price Target :

$54.51

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$55.91

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$52.76

Price Upper limit ($) :

$53.51

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$48.59

                                                               This week:

$43.

                                                        This month :

$32.88

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

5.23B

Market Cap Classification:

Mid Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

102.22M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

16.4%

-22.48%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$74.10

$64.50

$32.12

$41.72

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$61.38

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$59.33

$44.81

$46.89

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

GH

Sharpe Ratio:

0.90%

Comparison:

GH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -64.32% lower than the industry

& is -60.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

GH

Daily returns:

0.05%

Weekly returns:

0.23%

Monthly returns:

0.93%

Yearly returns:

27.92%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -60.19% below industry average

Classification:

GH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.94

Statistical test of Returns:

GH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

4.17%

Weekly Volatility:

9.32%

Monthly Volatility:

18.64%

Yearly Volatility:

64.59%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

5.52%

Volatility in last five trading days has been 32.39% above long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-8.52%

Weekly VaR:

-19.04%

Monthly VaR:

-38.08%

How Much Can the price of

GH

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-33%

Worst case (decline):

>85%

This translates to price declining to:

$35.50

This translates to price declining to:

$7.97

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

GH is a 168.79% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 130.27% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.98% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

GH

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.487

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.689

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.221

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

1.297

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.747

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.121

Beta is -29.94% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

1.181

Beta is -33.55% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

-

-

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.026

Alpha is -84.49% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 165% higher than market/& is unsustainably high

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

GH

Equity cost of capital:

0.085

Equity cost of capital is -24.15% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

2.40%

Before-tax cost of debt:

0.19%

After-tax cost of debt:

0.15%

Overall debt rating:

Highest AAA investment grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

0.15%

WACC is -64.14% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$3.83

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

10.18

Annual revenue growth rate is -80.14% below industry average

EPS:

-$4.13

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

68.24%

Expected future EPS growth rate is 154.23% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

-

-

-

Debt per share

$13.31

EBITDA per share

-$3.84

Valuation Analysis Today of

GH

P/E Ratio:

-

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

219.99

-

-

GH is -134.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

-

-

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

13.88

Price to sales ratio is 46.07% above the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

10.18

-

-

Net income growth rate (3Y):

42.96%

Net income growth rate is -118.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Dividend History:

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

--$0.00

-

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

255.30%

Net debt to equity ratio:

150.79%

Debt to assets ratio:

63.90%

Net debt to assets ratio:

37.74%

Debt-to-asset ratio is 31.50% above industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

-152.25

Interest coverage ratio is 442.78% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

68.99%

Annual debt growth is -33% lower than industry average debt growth rate

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.462

Statistical significance of correlation:

GH has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.488

Stock price is -5.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.488

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

-0.038

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

-0.092

Kurtosis 

3.281

Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)

Skewness of returns:

-0.373

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

GH

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

271%

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

-109.05%

Operating profit margin is -3.07% lower than the industry

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

271%

Effective Tax Rate:

-0.04%

Effective tax rate is -100.22% lower than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

-78.65%

Return on equity (ROE) is -474.37% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

-19.69%

Return on assets (ROA) is -92.70% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

2.8x

Current Ratio:

4.87

Current ratio is -2.10% below industry average

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

65.6

Cash conversion cycle is 32.23% above industry average

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.0 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

-5.92%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

284.8K

Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

- 285.5K

Each employee generates -1051% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

- 305.3K

Each employee generates -2009% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

- 37.4K

Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

740.2K

Each employee generates 1618% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 75.64%

Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4301.35% lower than the industry

Competitors/Peer firms of 

GH

GOODRX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDRX)

argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)

ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)

NOVAVAX, INC. (XNAS:NVAX)

ZAI LAB LIMITED (XNAS:ZLAB)

DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)

MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)

ICON PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:ICLR)

ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:ALNY)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�8%

Buy�8%

Hold�0%

Sell�0%

Strong sell�0%

Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy

Income Statement

Period:

TTM

Date:

3/31/22

Revenue:

391.09M

Cost of Revenue:

Gross Profit:

R&D Expense

General & Admin Expenses:

Selling, General & Admin Expenses

Sales and Marketing Expenses

Other Expenses :

Operating Expenses :

Cost & Expenses :

Interest Income:

Interest Expenses:

Depreciation & Amortization:

EBITDA:

Operating Income:

Other Income Expenses:

Income Before Tax:

Income Tax Expense:

Net Income:

Balance Sheet

Date:

Calendar Year:

Period:

Cash & Cash Equivalents:

Short Term Investments:

Cash & Short Term Investments:

Net Receivables:

Inventory:

Other Current Assets:

Total Current Assets:

PP&E:

Goodwill: 

Intangible Assets: 

Long Term Investments: 

Tax Assets: 

Other Non-Current Assets: 

Total Non-Current Assets: 

Other Assets: 

Total Assets: 

Accounts Payable: 

Short Term Debt:

Tax Payables:

Deferred Revenue:

Other Current Liabilities:

Total Current Liabilities:

Long Term Debt:

Other Non-Current Liabilities:

Total Non Current Liabilities:

Other Liabilities:

Total Liabilities:

Common Stock:

Retained Earnings:

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:

Other Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Stockholders' Equity:

Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:

Total Investments:

Total Debt:

Net Debt:

126.15M

264.94M

289.47M

179.97M

401.95M

221.98M

-

691.42M

3.16M

2.58M

24.46M

- 392037.00K

- 426476.00K

- 419240.00K

- 400474.00K

166.00K

- 419240.00K

Statement of Cash Flow

Date:

Period:

7.20M

Differed Income Tax :

-

Stock Based Compensation :

24.80M

Change in Working Capital :

50.16M

Accounts Receivables:

13.30M

Other Working Capital:

12.91M

Other Non-Cash Items:

12.45M

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:

- 28619.00K

Investments in PP&E:

- 22700.00K

Net Acquisitions:

-

Purchases of Investments:

- 176492.00K

Sales/Maturities of Investments:

Other Investing Activities:

​Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:

Debt Repayment:

Common Stock Issued:

Common Stock Repurchased:

Dividend Paid:

Other Financing Activities:

Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:

Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:

Net Changes in Cash:

Cash at End of Period:

Cash at Beginning of Period:

Operating Cash Flow:

Capital Expenditure:

Free Cash Flow (FCF):

3/31/22

2022

Q1

573.60M

388.66M

962.27M

84.33M

36.61M

30.07M

1.11B

339.93M

3.29M

13.73M

588.45M

-

70.92M

1.02B

-

2.13B

32.23M

16.56M

4.40M

10.57M

169.45M

228.81M

1.36B

6.91M

1.37B

-

1.60B

1.00K

- 1131053.00K

- 18314.0K

-

March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM

817.56M

533.04M

2.13B

977.12M

1.38B

803.8M

310.00M

-

110.81M

- 18.00K

-

-

-

6.00K

- 12.00K

- 792.00K

81.39M

573.67M

492.29M

- 28619.00K

- 22700.00K

- 51319.00K

Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating

Our Rating:

D

Portfolio rating_explained.png
Tech rating_explained.png
Alpha explained.png

Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of

GH

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

$56.09

$59.04

$62.16

$65.44

$68.89

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