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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Groupon, Inc. (XNAS:GRPN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GRPN
Name:
GROUPON, INC. (XNAS:GRPN)
Sector:
- 92080.00K
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Aaron Cooper
Total Employees:
3,675
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -171.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GROUPON, INC.(GRPN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.05
One Month Price Target:
$11.18
Six Month Price Target :
$11.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.17
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.6
This week:
$7.81
This month :
$4.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
314.25M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
56.66%
-44.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.79
$14.73
$4.31
$7.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.09
$8.35
$9.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GRPN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.63%
Comparison:
GRPN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -2100.36% lower than the industry
& is -127.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GRPN
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.62%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5642.07% below industry average
Classification:
GRPN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
GRPN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.38%
Weekly Volatility:
14.26%
Monthly Volatility:
28.51%
Yearly Volatility:
98.76%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.12%
Weekly VaR:
-29.35%
Monthly VaR:
-58.69%
How Much Can the price of
GRPN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-52%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.27
This translates to price declining to:
$1.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GRPN is a 314.24% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 254.88% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 55.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GRPN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.293
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.828
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.491
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.287
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.955
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.609
Beta is 25.56% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is 44.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
94.44%
Sustainable growth rate is 187.86% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.244
Alpha is 94.04% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1556% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GRPN
Equity cost of capital:
0.170
Equity cost of capital is 33.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.31%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.31%
WACC is 8.81% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.29
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -138.23% below industry average
EPS:
$1.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$9.07
EBITDA per share
$3.79
Valuation Analysis Today of
GRPN
P/E Ratio:
6.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
285.22
P/E ratio is -97.63% lower than main peers & is -82.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $70.54
GRPN is -84.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.39
Price to sales ratio is -92.35% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1147.79%
Net income growth rate is 1351.17% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
148.56%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2.04%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.64
Interest coverage ratio is -20.24% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.392
Statistical significance of correlation:
GRPN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is -17.09% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.06
Kurtosis
14.961
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.861
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GRPN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
332%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4.15%
Operating profit margin is -835.27% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
332%
Effective Tax Rate:
-109.68%
Effective tax rate is -953.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
38.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is -540.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.57%
Return on assets (ROA) is 322.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0.88
Current ratio is -75.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-21.3
Cash conversion cycle is -131.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
10.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
233.1K
Each employee generates -74% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
31.2K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.1K
Each employee generates -57% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 25.1K
Each employee generates -125% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
152.4K
Each employee generates -125% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GRPN
MICROVISION, INC. (XNAS:MVIS)
VERITONE, INC. (XNAS:VERI)
META MATERIALS INC. (XNAS:MMAT)
MITEK SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MITK)
DIGIMARC CORPORATION (XNAS:DMRC)
ONESPAN INC. (XNAS:OSPN)
SIERRA WIRELESS, INC. (XNAS:SWIR)
Turkish Airlines Inc. (OTCM:TKHVY)
ALLIED MOTION TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:AMOT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�33%
Sell�21%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
856.61M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
152.48M
704.13M
-
383.88M
646.67M
194.53M
65.98M
712.65M
3.98M
11.89M
69.96M
114.62M
- 35554.00K
70.20M
34.12M
- 37425.00K
70.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.37M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.51M
Change in Working Capital :
- 68687.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 15963.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 411.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 78164.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 13001.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
403.01M
-
403.01M
64.30M
-
41.87M
509.17M
113.61M
215.76M
22.80M
119.54M
62.68M
25.60M
559.98M
-
1.07B
261.37M
132.32M
-
57.37M
128.22M
579.28M
274.45M
27.85M
305.03M
-
884.31M
4.00K
- 1191720.00K
- 1444.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
865.13M
184.73M
1.07B
-
406.77M
3.8M
-
- 915.00K
- 13916.00K
- 218.00K
-
-
-
- 2746.00K
- 2964.00K
- 771.00K
- 95815.00K
403.67M
499.48M
- 78164.00K
- 13916.00K
- 92080.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GRPN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.61
$163.12
$185.27
$210.43
$239.01