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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GPRE
Name:
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
Sector:
- 224524.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Todd Becker
Total Employees:
859
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -720.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GREEN PLAINS INC.(GPRE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.4
One Month Price Target:
$35.73
Six Month Price Target :
$37.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$39.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.79
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$31.86
This week:
$27.49
This month :
$19.57
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
58.78M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.62%
-43.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.80
$44.13
$19.00
$26.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$41.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.00
$29.14
$30.80
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GPRE
Sharpe Ratio:
5.11%
Comparison:
GPRE, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 141.29% higher than the industry
& ratio is 124.24% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GPRE
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.32%
Monthly returns:
5.28%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 158.11% above industry average
Classification:
GPRE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
GPRE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.00%
Weekly Volatility:
11.17%
Monthly Volatility:
22.35%
Yearly Volatility:
77.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.00%
Weekly VaR:
-22.36%
Monthly VaR:
-44.71%
How Much Can the price of
GPRE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.48
This translates to price declining to:
$5.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GPRE is a 215.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 170.35% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 48.66% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GPRE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.964
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.363
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.281
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.048
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.831
Beta is -8.51% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is 43.89% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.488
Alpha is 262.93% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3106% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GPRE
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is 31.46% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.62%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.62%
WACC is 18.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$51.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2
Annual revenue growth rate is -2535.09% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-31.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -3570.67% lower than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -82.09%
Equity growth rate per share is -885.21% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$10.35
EBITDA per share
$0.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
GPRE
P/E Ratio:
56.95
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
78.25
P/E ratio is -27.22% lower than main peers & is 52.03% higher than the industry
-
GPRE is -140.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.68
Price to sales ratio is -75.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-431.02%
Net income growth rate is 679.63% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -4.24%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
68.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
51.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.27%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.31
Interest coverage ratio is -98.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
51.97%
Annual debt growth is -86% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 60.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.5
Statistical significance of correlation:
GPRE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -13.79% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.02
Kurtosis
12.2
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.193
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GPRE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
22%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.76%
Operating profit margin is -99.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
22%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.18%
Effective tax rate is -93.41% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-13.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is -147.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.37%
Return on assets (ROA) is -304.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2
Current ratio is -25.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.4
Cash conversion cycle is -92.93% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.6M
Each employee generates 376% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
16.1K
Each employee generates -84% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 140.8K
Each employee generates -543% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 261.4K
Each employee generates 603% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 603% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GPRE
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY (XNAS:CENX)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
SPDR BBGSASBUSCorpESGUCITSETFA (XLON:USCR)
FERROGLOBE PLC (XNAS:GSM)
23ANDME HOLDING CO. (XNAS:ME)
Origin Materials Inc (XNAS:ORGN)
GEVO, INC. (XNAS:GEVO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.05B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.89B
166.58M
-
-
98.48M
-
114.54M
213.03M
616.00K
44.27M
91.67M
13.85M
- 53741.00K
- 120921.00K
- 98935.00K
- 1170.00K
- 120921.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
20.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1219.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.88M
Change in Working Capital :
- 129926.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 22783.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4443.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 162540.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 61984.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
509.20M
24.94M
534.14M
142.69M
313.95M
171.83M
1.16B
1.01B
-
-
-
-
84.61M
1.09B
-
2.25B
106.31M
357.56M
-
-
116.79M
580.66M
608.17M
21.07M
629.24M
-
1.21B
62.00K
- 76673.00K
- 8889.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.10B
890.53M
2.10B
-
965.73M
456.5M
99.92M
-
37.93M
- 940824.00K
-
-
- 5122.00K
1.11B
167.91M
-
43.31M
604.27M
560.96M
- 162540.00K
- 61984.00K
- 224524.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GPRE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.51
$43.96
$48.91
$54.42
$60.55