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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (XNYS:GRBK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GRBK
Name:
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
Sector:
- 14442.00K
Industry:
Residential Construction
CEO:
Mr. James Brickman
Total Employees:
540
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 625.39% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC.(GRBK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.46
One Month Price Target:
$23.67
Six Month Price Target :
$24.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$25.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.65
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.74
This week:
$19.62
This month :
$15.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
46.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.67%
-21.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.42
$27.71
$15.50
$19.21
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.71
$20.41
$21.21
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GRBK
Sharpe Ratio:
4.44%
Comparison:
GRBK, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 77.84% higher than the industry
& ratio is 94.95% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GRBK
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.85%
Monthly returns:
3.42%
Yearly returns:
23.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 78.25% above industry average
Classification:
GRBK, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
GRBK has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.65%
Weekly Volatility:
8.15%
Monthly Volatility:
16.30%
Yearly Volatility:
56.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.47%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.32%
Weekly VaR:
-16.36%
Monthly VaR:
-32.72%
How Much Can the price of
GRBK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.13
This translates to price declining to:
$3.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GRBK is a 130.92% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 97.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.80% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GRBK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.60
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.977
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.382
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.224
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.018
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.744
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.121
Beta is -24.54% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.434
Beta is 11.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -20.11% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.269
Alpha is 168.01% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1712% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GRBK
Equity cost of capital:
0.141
Equity cost of capital is 8.82% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.14
Annual revenue growth rate is 355.55% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
38.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 100.98% higher than the Residential Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -360.58% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.70
EBITDA per share
$6.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
GRBK
P/E Ratio:
4.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
118.02
P/E ratio is -96.37% lower than main peers & is -53.04% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.28
GRBK is -41.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.69
Price to sales ratio is -51.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.14
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
295.54%
Net income growth rate is 229.39% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.27%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
33.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
20.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-96.01%
Annual debt growth is -2357% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 20.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.546
Statistical significance of correlation:
GRBK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -1.60% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.024
Kurtosis
3.144
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.081
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GRBK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.44%
Operating profit margin is 28.55% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
106%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.88%
Effective tax rate is 2.43% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.31%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
6.16
Current ratio is -20.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
89.9
Cash conversion cycle is 398.86% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.9M
Each employee generates 75% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
566.8K
Each employee generates 74% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
444.4K
Each employee generates 79% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 26.7K
Each employee generates 5% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
210.9K
Each employee generates 5% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GRBK
LORDSTOWN MOTORS CORP (XNAS:RIDE)
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
BJ'S RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:BJRI)
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
WORKHORSE GROUP INC. (XNAS:WKHS)
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC. (XNAS:JOUT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.56B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.15B
411.43M
-
-
- 129492.00K
-
-
- 129492.00K
-
-
2.53M
306.06M
272.38M
239.99M
304.36M
63.54M
239.99M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
625.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 79325.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 992.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2413.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13994.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 448.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
66.08M
-
66.08M
7.05M
1.33B
14.15M
1.41B
6.83M
680.00K
516.00K
58.13M
15.74M
31.97M
113.86M
-
1.53B
56.90M
19.42M
-
63.62M
89.56M
229.50M
354.62M
-
354.62M
-
584.12M
512.00K
600.79M
-
263.19M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.02B
912.18M
1.50B
-
374.04M
308.0M
-
-
- 448.00K
- 92014.00K
-
- 25801.00K
- 655.00K
119.59M
1.12M
-
- 13319.00K
80.24M
93.55M
- 13994.00K
- 448.00K
- 14442.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GRBK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.11
$224.34
$248.47
$275.19
$304.79