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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (XNAS:GLDD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GLDD
Name:
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
Sector:
- 2549.00K
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Lasse Petterson
Total Employees:
413
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -47.41% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION(GLDD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.43
One Month Price Target:
$9.47
Six Month Price Target :
$9.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.92
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.39
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.91
This week:
$8.27
This month :
$7.1
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
621.18M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
66.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.36%
-23.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.85
$10.75
$7.01
$8.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.39
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.15
$8.47
$8.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GLDD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.17%
Comparison:
GLDD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -104.26% lower than the industry
& is -107.42% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GLDD
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.02%
Monthly returns:
0.09%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -97.25% below industry average
Classification:
GLDD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
GLDD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.01%
Monthly Volatility:
12.03%
Yearly Volatility:
41.67%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.47% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.52%
Weekly VaR:
-12.34%
Monthly VaR:
-24.69%
How Much Can the price of
GLDD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-85.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.38
This translates to price declining to:
$1.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GLDD is a 74.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 49.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GLDD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.77
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.609
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.861
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.459
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.446
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.581
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.424
Beta is -45.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -41.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.83%
Sustainable growth rate is -28.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.074
Alpha is -129.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -472% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GLDD
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -30.93% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.91%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.91%
WACC is -21.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.24
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.5
Annual revenue growth rate is -78.73% below industry average
EPS:
$0.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -110.12% lower than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.58
EBITDA per share
$1.97
Valuation Analysis Today of
GLDD
P/E Ratio:
13.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.45
P/E ratio is -43.72% lower than main peers & is -52.55% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $22.62
GLDD is -58.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.84
Price to sales ratio is -86.40% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.5
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-844.19%
Net income growth rate is 11607.89% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
58.35%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.79%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -31.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.84
Interest coverage ratio is -71.88% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.91%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.38
Statistical significance of correlation:
GLDD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is -27.27% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.002
Kurtosis
12.095
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.798
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GLDD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.52%
Operating profit margin is -183.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
77%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.83%
Effective tax rate is 10.28% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 5.95% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 23.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.16
Current ratio is -23.21% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-7.3
Cash conversion cycle is -115.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 199% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
315.5K
Each employee generates 742% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
125.1K
Each employee generates -19269% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.2K
Each employee generates -4% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -4% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GLDD
Aegon NV (XMEX:AEGN)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
ANDAW
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:FORR)
OFSSZ
HOLLYSYS AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGIES LTD. (XNAS:HOLI)
GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDYN)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
742.87M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
597.62M
145.25M
-
60.42M
60.42M
-
-
60.42M
-
19.04M
44.28M
130.28M
85.55M
51.68M
66.96M
15.29M
51.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.32M
Differed Income Tax :
3.29M
Stock Based Compensation :
552.00K
Change in Working Capital :
111.00K
Accounts Receivables:
45.79M
Other Working Capital:
- 10921.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 4.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
26.32M
Investments in PP&E:
- 28866.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
142.58M
-
142.58M
111.70M
30.39M
43.37M
328.04M
531.90M
76.58M
-
-
-
82.32M
690.80M
-
1.02B
98.18M
16.04M
2.90M
3.69M
33.95M
151.85M
368.95M
8.75M
451.58M
-
603.44M
6.00K
101.43M
6.4M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
658.03M
415.40M
1.02B
-
384.98M
242.4M
-
1.11M
- 27756.00K
-
-
-
-
- 1437.00K
- 1437.00K
-
- 2876.00K
144.58M
147.46M
26.32M
- 28866.00K
- 2549.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GLDD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.97
$14.26
$15.00
$15.78
$16.60