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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gopro, Inc (XNAS:GPRO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GPRO
Name:
GOPRO, INC (XNAS:GPRO)
Sector:
- 73927.00K
Industry:
Consumer Electronics
CEO:
Mr. Nicholas Woodman
Total Employees:
766
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 91.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GOPRO, INC(GPRO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSUMER ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.9
One Month Price Target:
$5.94
Six Month Price Target :
$6.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.95
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.39
This week:
$4.77
This month :
$3.63
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
884.58M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
155.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.23%
-26.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.25
$7.17
$3.55
$4.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.58
$4.99
$5.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GPRO
Sharpe Ratio:
3.02%
Comparison:
GPRO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 61.46% higher than the industry
& ratio is 32.48% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GPRO
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.69%
Monthly returns:
2.75%
Yearly returns:
16.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 97.99% above industry average
Classification:
GPRO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
GPRO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.25%
Weekly Volatility:
9.51%
Monthly Volatility:
19.03%
Yearly Volatility:
65.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.17%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.60%
Weekly VaR:
-19.23%
Monthly VaR:
-38.46%
How Much Can the price of
GPRO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-32%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.99
This translates to price declining to:
$0.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GPRO is a 171.47% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 132.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 26.87% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GPRO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.891
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.26
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.541
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.309
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.147
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.094
Beta is 5.25% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.372
Beta is -16.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
91.62%
Sustainable growth rate is 45.13% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.219
Alpha is 434.60% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1395% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GPRO
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -12.04% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.19%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.93%
WACC is 0.38% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.54
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.55
Annual revenue growth rate is -248.71% below industry average
EPS:
$2.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.12
-
-
Debt per share
$1.16
EBITDA per share
$0.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
GPRO
P/E Ratio:
2.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
181.17
P/E ratio is -98.58% lower than main peers & is -84.20% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $38.65
GPRO is -84.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.78
Price to sales ratio is -71.20% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.55
Price to free cash flow: 5.28
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-406.19%
Net income growth rate is 59.43% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
15.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.87%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.84
Interest coverage ratio is -40.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
49.15%
Annual debt growth is 122% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.534
Statistical significance of correlation:
GPRO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.532
Stock price is 0.28% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.532
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.059
Kurtosis
9.15
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.236
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GPRO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
166%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.64%
Operating profit margin is -40.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
166%
Effective Tax Rate:
-269.71%
Effective tax rate is -1452.68% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
65.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is -4.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
33.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is 89.25% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.86
Current ratio is 18.44% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-44.3
Cash conversion cycle is -140.83% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 14% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
159.4K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
505.3K
Each employee generates 61% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 96.5K
Each employee generates -229% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
625.5K
Each employee generates -229% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 7.53%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 19.40% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GPRO
Agora, Inc. (XNAS:API)
RADWARE LTD. (XNAS:RDWR)
REPAY HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:RPAY)
TTM TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:TTMI)
QADA
ACM RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:ACMR)
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SGH)
Docebo Inc. (XNAS:DCBO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
685.22M
488.89M
140.66M
66.91M
223.18M
156.28M
-
363.85M
-
7.71M
9.73M
122.12M
124.89M
387.02M
104.68M
- 282341.00K
387.02M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.30M
Differed Income Tax :
2.93M
Stock Based Compensation :
9.84M
Change in Working Capital :
- 96843.00K
Accounts Receivables:
43.50M
Other Working Capital:
965.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.68M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 73407.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 520.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 23111.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
305.32M
144.62M
449.94M
70.57M
119.40M
26.87M
666.77M
42.94M
146.46M
15.00K
-
278.76M
11.00M
479.17M
-
1.15B
82.93M
134.82M
-
46.24M
94.26M
358.25M
180.51M
14.40M
194.90M
-
553.16M
935.67M
- 219275.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.05B
592.79M
1.15B
-
315.33M
10.0M
15.90M
-
- 7731.00K
-
2.60M
- 10000.00K
-
- 7175.00K
- 14576.00K
- 54.00K
- 95768.00K
305.32M
401.09M
- 73407.00K
- 520.00K
- 73927.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GPRO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$6.39
$121.58
$130.98
$141.11
$152.03