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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Golub Capital Bdc, Inc. (XNAS:GBDC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GBDC
Name:
GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:GBDC)
Sector:
- 181734.00K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. David Golub
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC.(GBDC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.37
One Month Price Target:
$13.42
Six Month Price Target :
$13.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.94
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.79
This week:
$12.07
This month :
$10.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
170.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.45%
-19.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.08
$14.85
$10.66
$11.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.19
$12.28
$12.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GBDC
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.37%
Comparison:
GBDC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -270.72% lower than the industry
& is -160.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GBDC
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.40%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -152.65% below industry average
Classification:
GBDC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
GBDC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.11%
Weekly Volatility:
4.72%
Monthly Volatility:
9.45%
Yearly Volatility:
32.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 34.88% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.36%
Weekly VaR:
-9.74%
Monthly VaR:
-19.49%
How Much Can the price of
GBDC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.51%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.03
This translates to price declining to:
$4.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GBDC is a 37.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.72% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GBDC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.302
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.35
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.486
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.167
Beta is -46.09% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -62.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -93.36% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.123
Alpha is 120.64% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -783% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GBDC
Equity cost of capital:
0.075
Equity cost of capital is -49.44% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.00%
WACC is -89.33% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.88
Annual revenue growth rate is -56.41% below industry average
EPS:
$1.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -26.49%
Equity growth rate per share is -225.33% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.56
EBITDA per share
$2.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
GBDC
P/E Ratio:
10.48
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
44.63
P/E ratio is -76.52% lower than main peers & is -35.11% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $27.13
GBDC is -50.72% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $26.86
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.16
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.83
Price to sales ratio is 14.30% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.88
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
55.88%
Net income growth rate is -61.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.46%
Dividend yeild: 8.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.19
Expected next dividend best case: $0.31
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.29
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -0.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.30
2021-12-09--$0.30
2021-06-10--$0.29
2022-03-03--$0.30
2021-09-07--$0.29
2021-03-04--$0.29
Dividend growth rate is -115.76% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
108.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
210.19%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
100.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.19% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5
Interest coverage ratio is -91.59% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
26.44%
Annual debt growth is -482% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.369
Statistical significance of correlation:
GBDC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -36.02% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
30.243
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.266
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GBDC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.03%
Effective tax rate is -99.86% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -56.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is -11.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
1.86
Current ratio is -51.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GBDC
FIRST MERCHANTS CORPORATION (XNAS:FRME)
WESBANCO, INC. (XNAS:WSBC)
ROOT, INC. (XNAS:ROOT)
BRP GROUP, INC. (XNAS:BRP)
Renasant Corporation (XNAS:RNST)
LENDINGTREE, INC. (XNAS:TREE)
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (XNAS:GCMG)
WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WSFS)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP. (XNAS:FFBC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
291.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
66.63M
-
12.06M
12.06M
-
- 4866.00K
7.20M
323.43M
71.58M
1.67M
357.82M
-
284.48M
284.57M
97.00K
284.48M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.67M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
5.46M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.44B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 251937.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 181734.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 294.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
180.20M
5.07B
5.25B
24.29M
-
- 3023.00K
5.27B
-
-
-
5.15B
-
-
-
210.36M
5.48B
21.73M
2.83B
-
-
- 21731.00K
2.83B
2.83B
-
2.83B
5.70B
2.87B
171.00K
- 69659.00K
-
2.68B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
-
2.61B
5.48B
10.22B
5.66B
5.5B
661.76M
294.00K
661.76M
- 336800.00K
-
-
- 38291.00K
613.98M
238.89M
- 25.00K
57.13M
301.48M
244.34M
- 181734.00K
-
- 181734.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GBDC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$14.01
$14.60
$15.22
$15.86
$16.53