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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GDEN
Name:
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
Sector:
32.71M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. Blake L. Sartini Sr.
Total Employees:
6,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -10.31% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC.(GDEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
37.02
One Month Price Target:
$37.54
Six Month Price Target :
$40.15
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.27
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$36.79
Price Upper limit ($) :
$37.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.28
This week:
$28.65
This month :
$20.27
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
28.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
51.76%
-40.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.38
$46.30
$19.66
$27.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.66
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.94
$30.35
$32.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GDEN
Sharpe Ratio:
4.38%
Comparison:
GDEN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 56.74% higher than the industry
& ratio is 92.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GDEN
Daily returns:
0.23%
Weekly returns:
1.15%
Monthly returns:
4.59%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 63.75% above industry average
Classification:
GDEN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
GDEN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.04%
Weekly Volatility:
11.26%
Monthly Volatility:
22.53%
Yearly Volatility:
78.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.12%
Weekly VaR:
-22.62%
Monthly VaR:
-45.24%
How Much Can the price of
GDEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.19
This translates to price declining to:
$5.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GDEN is a 219.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 173.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.03% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GDEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.51
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.161
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.642
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.528
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.185
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.819
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.583
Beta is 58.70% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is 20.93% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
54.32%
Sustainable growth rate is 81.25% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.347
Alpha is 113.62% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2209% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GDEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.204
Equity cost of capital is 17.14% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
WACC is -4.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$39.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 24.49% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.47
-
-
Debt per share
$39.81
EBITDA per share
$11.83
Valuation Analysis Today of
GDEN
P/E Ratio:
11.33
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.26
P/E ratio is -20.59% lower than main peers & is -72.96% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $245.50
GDEN is -84.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.93
Price to sales ratio is -62.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.17
Price to free cash flow: 4.37
Price to free cash flow ratio is -73.20% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-842.38%
Net income growth rate is 1179.63% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
340.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
291.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
70.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -3.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.45
Interest coverage ratio is 3.21% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.50%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.20%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.519
Statistical significance of correlation:
GDEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is -8.76% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
23.916
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.631
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GDEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
180%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.26%
Operating profit margin is 108.23% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
180%
Effective Tax Rate:
-10.47%
Effective tax rate is -125.34% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
56.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is 166.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is 203.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.4x
Current Ratio:
1.91
Current ratio is -13.71% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.8
Cash conversion cycle is -176.74% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.68%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
179.4K
Each employee generates -32% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
53.5K
Each employee generates -24% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
29.7K
Each employee generates 37% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.2K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
213.7K
Each employee generates -48% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GDEN
MALIBU BOATS, INC. (XNAS:MBUU)
BED BATH & BEYOND INC. (XNAS:BBBY)
ROVER GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ROVR)
Vroom, Inc. (XNAS:VRM)
G-III APPAREL GROUP, LTD. (XNAS:GIII)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
FAT BRANDS INC. (XNAS:FATBP)
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
621.68M
508.81M
-
-
229.29M
-
105.96M
335.25M
-
61.92M
105.78M
337.18M
172.56M
187.22M
169.48M
- 17746.00K
187.22M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.28M
Differed Income Tax :
- 20559.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3032.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2003.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
43.52M
Investments in PP&E:
- 10813.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
202.28M
-
202.28M
20.54M
7.43M
27.43M
257.67M
1.06B
158.40M
96.17M
-
18.70M
11.80M
1.35B
-
1.60B
23.88M
39.43M
9.61M
-
71.40M
134.71M
1.13B
1.50M
1.14B
-
1.27B
290.00K
- 137704.00K
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
956.93M
333.26M
1.60B
-
1.17B
971.8M
-
90.00K
- 10723.00K
- 25550.00K
4.00K
- 15196.00K
-
- 10310.00K
- 51052.00K
-
- 18257.00K
202.28M
220.54M
43.52M
- 10813.00K
32.71M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GDEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.49
$75.43
$88.17
$103.05
$120.45