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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gogo Inc. (XNAS:GOGO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GOGO
Name:
GOGO INC. (XNAS:GOGO)
Sector:
8.81M
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Ronald LeMay
Total Employees:
376
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -91.35% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GOGO INC.(GOGO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.02
One Month Price Target:
$14.11
Six Month Price Target :
$14.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.42
This week:
$10.43
This month :
$6.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
128.69M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
43.39%
-27.3%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.45
$17.98
$6.59
$10.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.85
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.11
$11.18
$11.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GOGO
Sharpe Ratio:
5.05%
Comparison:
GOGO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 419.76% higher than the industry
& ratio is 121.72% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GOGO
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.49%
Monthly returns:
5.95%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 301.86% above industry average
Classification:
GOGO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.18
Statistical test of Returns:
GOGO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.71%
Weekly Volatility:
12.78%
Monthly Volatility:
25.55%
Yearly Volatility:
88.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.73%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.44%
Weekly VaR:
-25.57%
Monthly VaR:
-51.15%
How Much Can the price of
GOGO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.16
This translates to price declining to:
$2.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GOGO is a 261.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 209.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 67.65% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GOGO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.749
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.06
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.001
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.918
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.865
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
23.984
Beta is -95.19% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is 40.79% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.81%
Sustainable growth rate is 6.32% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.604
Alpha is 569.72% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3843% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GOGO
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is 26.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.01%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.61%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.43%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.43%
WACC is -55.86% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-6.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -116.17% below industry average
EPS:
$0.68
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.45
-
-
Debt per share
$5.99
EBITDA per share
$0.48
Valuation Analysis Today of
GOGO
P/E Ratio:
9.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
70.26
P/E ratio is -86.52% lower than main peers & is -67.90% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.07
GOGO is -30.13% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.09
Price to sales ratio is -18.66% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-6.42
Price to free cash flow: 30.86
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-191.71%
Net income growth rate is -147.11% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-274.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-261.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
112.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
107.32%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 47.11% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1.25
Interest coverage ratio is -20.39% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-40.97%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.24%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.288
Statistical significance of correlation:
GOGO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -37.56% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
10.296
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.234
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GOGO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
277%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
36.04%
Operating profit margin is 1051.50% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
277%
Effective Tax Rate:
28122.61%
Effective tax rate is 87030.44% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-64.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1592.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
26.65%
Return on assets (ROA) is -14722.13% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-8.0x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -10.85% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
9.5
Cash conversion cycle is -86.58% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
943.1K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
165.6K
Each employee generates -52% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
485.7K
Each employee generates 366% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.4K
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -59% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 528.63% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GOGO
PARTNER COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY LTD. (XNAS:PTNR)
SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:SCHL)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRA)
RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (XNAS:RADI)
TABOOLA.COM LTD (XNAS:TBLA)
THE E.W. SCRIPPS COMPANY (XNAS:SSP)
AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AVID)
Shenandoah Telecommunications Company (XNAS:SHEN)
THRYV HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:THRY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
354.60M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
108.73M
245.86M
17.91M
54.64M
78.13M
23.49M
124.23M
220.26M
- 201.00K
49.83M
15.16M
62.28M
127.80M
182.62M
- 659.00K
- 185328.00K
182.62M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.79M
Differed Income Tax :
1.89M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.01M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15350.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4571.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 839.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
17.87M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7598.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
152.83M
-
152.83M
65.94M
36.47M
15.81M
271.05M
142.57M
620.00K
48.54M
-
177.93M
44.56M
414.22M
-
685.28M
18.12M
117.58M
1.73M
1.60M
51.00M
188.30M
770.69M
7.33M
778.02M
-
966.32M
11.00K
- 1429432.00K
18.0M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
329.00M
- 281040.00K
685.28M
-
888.27M
735.4M
-
- 1457.00K
- 9055.00K
- 1856.00K
-
-
-
- 23.00K
- 1879.00K
- 16.00K
6.92M
153.18M
146.27M
17.87M
- 9055.00K
8.81M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GOGO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.19
$24.78
$26.70
$28.77
$30.99