_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Globus Medical, Inc. (XNYS:GMED) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GMED
Name:
GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC. (XNYS:GMED)
Sector:
24.72M
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. David Demski
Total Employees:
2,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 12.40% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC.(GMED) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.25
One Month Price Target:
$58.61
Six Month Price Target :
$60.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.6
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.38
This week:
$51.84
This month :
$45.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.75B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
99.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.15%
-13.25%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.56
$65.47
$44.94
$51.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.18
$53.00
$54.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GMED
Sharpe Ratio:
0.98%
Comparison:
GMED, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -35.53% lower than the industry
& is -57.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GMED
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.65%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -49.34% below industry average
Classification:
GMED, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
GMED has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.40%
Monthly Volatility:
10.79%
Yearly Volatility:
37.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.76% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.92%
Weekly VaR:
-11.01%
Monthly VaR:
-22.02%
How Much Can the price of
GMED
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.29%
This translates to price declining to:
$47.12
This translates to price declining to:
$13.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GMED is a 55.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.17% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GMED
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.764
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.08
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.008
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.67
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.631
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.264
Beta is -12.11% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 4.36% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.64%
Sustainable growth rate is -10.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.030
Alpha is -160.68% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -190% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GMED
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 3.05% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.76%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.25
Annual revenue growth rate is -91.80% below industry average
EPS:
$1.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-2.84%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -124.52% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.86
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
GMED
P/E Ratio:
38.89
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.73
P/E ratio is 183.20% higher than main peers & is -84.03% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $331.22
GMED is -82.41% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.03
Price to sales ratio is -35.22% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.25
Price to free cash flow: 31.33
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-7.35%
Net income growth rate is -107.57% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.50%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
54.92
Interest coverage ratio is 311.70% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.565
Statistical significance of correlation:
GMED has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 20.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.007
Kurtosis
5.479
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.348
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GMED
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.04%
Operating profit margin is -199.83% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
299%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.53%
Effective tax rate is -68.09% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.95%
Return on equity (ROE) is -181.09% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is -310.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
6.48
Current ratio is 0.21% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
118.3
Cash conversion cycle is 112.07% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 30.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
400.5K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
102.6K
Each employee generates 1539% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
59.1K
Each employee generates -299% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.3K
Each employee generates -173% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
450.9K
Each employee generates -173% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 15.18%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -11673.89% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GMED
ENVISTA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:NVST)
CHEMED CORPORATION (XNYS:CHE)
TENET HEALTHCARE CORPORATION (XNYS:THC)
ORGANON & CO. (XNYS:OGN)
INSPIRE MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:INSP)
OAK STREET HEALTH, INC. (XNYS:OSH)
Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Limited (XNYS:BHVN)
DOXIMITY, INC. (XNYS:DOCS)
AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:AMN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
961.31M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
243.36M
717.94M
99.83M
-
411.01M
-
18.26M
529.10M
-
4.48M
69.55M
246.14M
163.85M
141.95M
172.11M
30.17M
141.95M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.84M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2994.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.15M
Change in Working Capital :
- 17294.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1614.00K
Other Working Capital:
12.98M
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.91M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
44.69M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19971.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 142145.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
229.79M
243.51M
473.29M
169.83M
253.89M
19.59M
916.60M
227.54M
179.05M
64.39M
546.88M
29.94M
34.31M
1.08B
-
2.00B
26.09M
-
23.32M
11.81M
103.59M
141.49M
-
68.02M
71.83M
-
213.32M
101.00K
1.23B
- 17167.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
772.47M
1.79B
2.00B
790.39M
-
- 229789.0K
149.22M
-
- 13894.00K
-
-
-
-
6.05M
6.05M
- 123.00K
36.72M
229.79M
193.07M
44.69M
- 19971.00K
24.72M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GMED
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.51
$60.73
$65.27
$70.14
$75.38