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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Globe Life Inc. (XNYS:GL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GL
Name:
GLOBE LIFE INC. (XNYS:GL)
Sector:
-
Industry:
Insurance�Life
CEO:
Mr. Gary Coleman
Total Employees:
3,222
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -77.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLOBE LIFE INC.(GL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�LIFE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
96.79
One Month Price Target:
$97.26
Six Month Price Target :
$99.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$102.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$96.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$97.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$92.11
This week:
$86.34
This month :
$75.88
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
97.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.43%
-13.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.49
$108.59
$75.09
$84.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$105.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$103.26
$88.18
$90.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GL
Sharpe Ratio:
0.31%
Comparison:
GL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -75.70% lower than the industry
& is -86.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GL
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.08%
Monthly returns:
0.33%
Yearly returns:
12.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -67.93% below industry average
Classification:
GL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
GL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.36%
Weekly Volatility:
5.28%
Monthly Volatility:
10.55%
Yearly Volatility:
36.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.50%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.83%
Weekly VaR:
-10.80%
Monthly VaR:
-21.60%
How Much Can the price of
GL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-74.83%
This translates to price declining to:
$78.48
This translates to price declining to:
$24.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GL is a 52.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 30.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.838
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.184
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.74
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.776
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.894
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.859
Beta is 1.91% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.194
Beta is -26.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -7.09% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.052
Alpha is -721.15% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -334% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GL
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -19.28% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.14%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.14%
WACC is -22.29% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$53.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.86
Annual revenue growth rate is 66.59% above the industry average
EPS:
$7.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -70.84% lower than the Insurance�Life industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.21
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -1414.65% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$15.88
EBITDA per share
$10.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
GL
P/E Ratio:
13.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.81
P/E ratio is 40.38% higher than main peers & is 41.73% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $69.56
GL is 39.15% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $27.11
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.65
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.83
Price to sales ratio is 69.85% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.86
Price to free cash flow: 9.48
Price to free cash flow ratio is -8.10% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.05%
Net income growth rate is -16.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.83%
Previous Dividend: $0.21
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.21
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.20
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.12%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/08/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-01--$0.21
2021-10-01--$0.20
2021-04-01--$0.20
2022-01-06--$0.20
2021-07-01--$0.20
2021-01-07--$0.19
Dividend growth rate is -35.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
22.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
28.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.55%
Net debt to assets ratio:
6.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.88
Interest coverage ratio is 184.38% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.37%
Annual debt growth is -135% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.773
Statistical significance of correlation:
GL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.695
Stock price is 11.30% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.695
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.042
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
8.24
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.179
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.37%
Effective tax rate is -9.60% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is 236.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.62%
Return on assets (ROA) is 212.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.88
Current ratio is -88.56% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -15% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
303.4K
Each employee generates -5% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
226.8K
Each employee generates -2% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.0K
-
Assets/Capital per employee
149.5K
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GL
EVEREST RE GROUP, LTD. (XNYS:RE)
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AFG)
COMERICA INCORPORATED (XNYS:CMA)
Banco Santander-Chile (XNYS:BSAC)
WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (XNYS:WAL)
UWM HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:UWMC)
FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION (XNYS:FHN)
BANK OF CHILE (XNYS:BCH)
THE WESTERN UNION COMPANY (XNYS:WU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
1.31B
-
75.89M
75.89M
-
-
-
-
82.25M
-
977.46M
-
730.80M
895.21M
164.41M
730.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
127.63M
889.77M
1.02B
487.93M
-
-
1.51B
-
481.79M
-
19.83B
-
- 19828409.00K
481.79M
26.83B
27.85B
-
522.08M
-
-
-
522.08M
1.55B
13.47B
16.31B
-
16.83B
109.22M
6.32B
869.5M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.27B
6.89B
23.73B
20.72B
2.07B
1.9B
-
-
-
-
109.22M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
92.16M
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$106.75
$113.03
$119.68
$126.71
$134.17