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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Globalstar, Inc. (XNYS:GSAT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GSAT
Name:
GLOBALSTAR, INC. (XNYS:GSAT)
Sector:
- 2882.00K
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. David Kagan
Total Employees:
329
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 348.78% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLOBALSTAR, INC.(GSAT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.04
One Month Price Target:
$2.04
Six Month Price Target :
$2.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.08
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.72
This week:
$1.33
This month :
$.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.77B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.80B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
69.11%
-27.95%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.51
$2.82
$0.57
$1.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.45
$1.48
$1.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GSAT
Sharpe Ratio:
6.22%
Comparison:
GSAT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 539.71% higher than the industry
& ratio is 172.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GSAT
Daily returns:
0.50%
Weekly returns:
2.48%
Monthly returns:
9.92%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 569.67% above industry average
Classification:
GSAT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
GSAT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.83%
Weekly Volatility:
17.51%
Monthly Volatility:
35.02%
Yearly Volatility:
121.32%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.06% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-15.59%
Weekly VaR:
-34.85%
Monthly VaR:
-69.71%
How Much Can the price of
GSAT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-56%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.90
This translates to price declining to:
$0.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GSAT is a 391.98% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 321.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 129.77% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GSAT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.577
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.816
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.156
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.302
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.778
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is -65.91% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.140
Alpha is 1164.04% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 7254% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GSAT
Equity cost of capital:
0.051
Equity cost of capital is -42.20% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.63%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.63%
WACC is -17.91% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.52
Annual revenue growth rate is -107.98% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.05
-
-
Debt per share
$0.15
EBITDA per share
$0.01
Valuation Analysis Today of
GSAT
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is higher than the industry
-
GSAT is -238.27% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
28.23
Price to sales ratio is 351.34% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.52
Price to free cash flow: 43.70
Price to free cash flow ratio is 16.18% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1143.15%
Net income growth rate is 180.89% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
78.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
75.53%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.37%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.91
Interest coverage ratio is -42.06% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-30.27%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.279
Statistical significance of correlation:
GSAT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is -39.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.072
Kurtosis
25.588
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.57
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GSAT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-46.07%
Operating profit margin is -1571.97% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.30%
Effective tax rate is -99.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-27.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is 621.49% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-11.38%
Return on assets (ROA) is 6142.65% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.69
Current ratio is -57.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
42.3
Cash conversion cycle is -40.28% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
395.6K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
35.0K
Each employee generates -90% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 294.1K
Each employee generates -382% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.8K
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.4M
Each employee generates -115% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GSAT
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
130.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
53.35M
76.79M
-
-
40.60M
-
95.90M
136.51M
-
12.65M
95.90M
11.51M
- 59955.00K
- 96754.00K
- 97047.00K
- 293.00K
- 96754.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.78M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.23M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4477.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 213.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 2133.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.49M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
7.57M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1301.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
11.52M
-
11.52M
25.25M
14.27M
20.15M
71.19M
711.34M
-
-
-
-
27.53M
779.23M
-
850.43M
7.99M
-
-
37.19M
58.50M
103.68M
275.29M
7.05M
397.51M
-
501.19M
180.00K
- 1803811.00K
1.2M
2.15B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
189.85M
349.23M
850.43M
-
275.29M
263.8M
-
- 9150.00K
- 10451.00K
-
8.00K
-
-
-
8.00K
89.00K
- 2785.00K
11.52M
14.30M
7.57M
- 10451.00K
- 2882.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GSAT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1.95
$1.99
$2.02
$2.06
$2.10