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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:GBT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GBT
Name:
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
Sector:
- 72105.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Ted Love
Total Employees:
457
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -4.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC.(GBT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
67.8
One Month Price Target:
$67.98
Six Month Price Target :
$68.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$69.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$67.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$68.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.46
This week:
$53.62
This month :
$39.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
67.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
41.44%
-36.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.23
$83.73
$38.37
$51.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$76.45
$56.23
$59.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GBT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.63%
Comparison:
GBT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -16.37% lower than the industry
& is -28.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GBT
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.67%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.47% below industry average
Classification:
GBT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
GBT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.60%
Weekly Volatility:
10.28%
Monthly Volatility:
20.55%
Yearly Volatility:
71.20%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -91.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.36%
Weekly VaR:
-20.92%
Monthly VaR:
-41.84%
How Much Can the price of
GBT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.36
This translates to price declining to:
$10.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GBT is a 195.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 152.97% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.33% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GBT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.47
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.561
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.793
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.08
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.1
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.045
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.914
Beta is -48.84% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -59.42% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.137
Alpha is -3.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 873% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GBT
Equity cost of capital:
0.064
Equity cost of capital is -42.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.03%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.40%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.40%
WACC is -63.03% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.13
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
34.14
-
EPS:
-$4.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -82.76% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$9.68
EBITDA per share
-$4.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
GBT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
93.46
-
-
GBT is -115.55% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
21.7
Price to sales ratio is -46.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
34.14
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
41.44%
Net income growth rate is -41.29% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
487.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
199.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
75.12%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 78.18% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-14.04
Interest coverage ratio is -88.13% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
329.30%
Annual debt growth is 144% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.399
Statistical significance of correlation:
GBT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 17.31% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
20.359
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.935
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GBT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
393%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-137.33%
Operating profit margin is -67.96% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
393%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.06%
Effective tax rate is -100.97% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-231.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is 302.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-35.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is 74.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.0x
Current Ratio:
8.52
Current ratio is 5.24% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28.1
Cash conversion cycle is -105.27% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
461.4K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 614.0K
Each employee generates -259% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 677.4K
Each employee generates -629% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 157.8K
Each employee generates -207% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
424.3K
Each employee generates -207% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 36.75%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1124.45% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GBT
MODIVCARE INC. (XNAS:MODV)
Outset Medical, Inc. (XNAS:OM)
LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LNTH)
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
CASSAVA SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:SAVA)
PROTHENA CORPORATION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:PRTA)
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AGIO)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
210.87M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.79M
207.08M
214.11M
-
282.56M
-
-
496.67M
891.00K
19.98M
8.84M
- 280590.00K
- 289587.00K
- 309584.00K
- 308936.00K
171.00K
- 309584.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.27M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
19.14M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14325.00K
Accounts Receivables:
1.07M
Other Working Capital:
- 7403.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.49M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 71853.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 252.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 222248.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
391.80M
161.61M
553.42M
27.73M
61.96M
32.54M
675.65M
80.87M
-
-
108.67M
-
4.36M
193.90M
-
869.54M
5.42M
5.89M
-
-
67.99M
79.31M
653.16M
3.08M
656.24M
-
735.54M
65.00K
- 1370983.00K
- 1962.0K
1.51B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
500.45M
134.00M
869.54M
270.28M
659.05M
267.2M
-
-
- 222500.00K
-
-
-
-
1.60M
1.60M
- 147.00K
- 292898.00K
394.26M
687.15M
- 71853.00K
- 252.00K
- 72105.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GBT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$70.15
$72.35
$74.63
$76.97
$79.39