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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gladstone Commercial Corporation (XNAS:GOOD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GOOD
Name:
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOOD)
Sector:
17.19M
Industry:
REIT�Diversified
CEO:
Mr. David Gladstone
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION(GOOD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.67
One Month Price Target:
$18.78
Six Month Price Target :
$19.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$19.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.58
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.77
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.5
This week:
$16.06
This month :
$13.45
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
798.41M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
41.93M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.68%
-35.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.09
$21.62
$13.25
$15.72
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.81
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.28
$16.52
$17.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GOOD
Sharpe Ratio:
0.43%
Comparison:
GOOD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -27.31% lower than the industry
& is -81.31% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GOOD
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.11%
Monthly returns:
0.44%
Yearly returns:
5.46%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -3.81% below industry average
Classification:
GOOD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
GOOD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.06%
Weekly Volatility:
6.83%
Monthly Volatility:
13.67%
Yearly Volatility:
47.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.90%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -70.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.26%
Weekly VaR:
-13.99%
Monthly VaR:
-27.98%
How Much Can the price of
GOOD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$14.10
This translates to price declining to:
$2.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GOOD is a 97.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.16% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 5.41% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GOOD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.88
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.244
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.814
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.993
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.089
Beta is -4.63% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.109
Beta is -6.35% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.050
Alpha is -5.19% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -319% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GOOD
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -4.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.92%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.92%
WACC is -18.53% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.24% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-9.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -2401.43% lower than the REIT�Diversified industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.40%
Equity growth rate per share is -102.30% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.13
EBITDA per share
$2.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
GOOD
P/E Ratio:
1819.69
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
142.62
P/E ratio is 1175.93% higher than main peers & is 4240.68% higher than the industry
-
GOOD is -1213.38% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $15.32
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.65
Price to sales ratio is -28.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.03
Price to free cash flow: 10.10
Price to free cash flow ratio is -7.58% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-36.22%
Net income growth rate is 1004.02% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 132.74%
Dividend yeild: 2.68%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 20/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 22/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-21--$0.13
2022-04-21--$0.13
2022-02-17--$0.13
2022-05-19--$0.13
2022-03-22--$0.13
2022-01-20--$0.13
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
176.34%
Net debt to equity ratio:
182.85%
Debt to assets ratio:
58.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 14.87% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.71
Interest coverage ratio is 101.69% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.73%
Annual debt growth is 74% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.64%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.586
Statistical significance of correlation:
GOOD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.573
Stock price is 2.40% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.573
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.015
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
42.129
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.163
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GOOD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
322%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.69%
Operating profit margin is 44.31% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
322%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.41%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.76% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.13%
Return on assets (ROA) is -29.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0.56
Current ratio is -78.70% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
103.6
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GOOD
CREATIVE MEDIA & COMMUNITY TRUST CORPORATION. (XNAS:CMCTP)
THE RMR GROUP INC. (XNAS:RMR)
GOODM
GLADSTONE LAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LAND)
FRP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FRPH)
THE NECESSITY RETAIL REIT, INC. (XNAS:RTL)
IRSA Propiedades Comerciales SA (XNAS:IRCP)
Fathom Holdings Inc (XNAS:FTHM)
GLADSTONE COMMERCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:GOODN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
138.54M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
27.16M
111.38M
-
16.12M
16.12M
-
58.29M
74.41M
-
26.31M
58.33M
97.72M
36.97M
13.08M
13.09M
-
13.08M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.70M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
275.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
1.16M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1175.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
17.19M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 509.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
9.59M
-
9.59M
-
-
14.90M
24.48M
5.31M
-
112.66M
-
-
1.01B
1.13B
-
1.15B
5.36M
34.55M
-
-
3.57M
43.49M
676.29M
49.80M
726.09M
-
769.58M
39.00K
- 482493.00K
2.9M
692.80M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
101.57M
383.52M
1.15B
-
710.84M
701.3M
-
- 17062.00K
- 17571.00K
- 25560.00K
22.17M
- 55.00K
- 17365.00K
22.68M
1.87M
-
1.48M
14.66M
13.18M
17.19M
-
17.19M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GOOD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$20.03
$21.43
$22.93
$24.53
$26.24