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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (XNYS:GBCI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GBCI
Name:
GLACIER BANCORP, INC. (XNYS:GBCI)
Sector:
74.49M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Randall Chesler
Total Employees:
3,439
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -468.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GLACIER BANCORP, INC.(GBCI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.41
One Month Price Target:
$49.63
Six Month Price Target :
$50.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$52.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$49.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$46.63
This week:
$43.19
This month :
$36.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
110.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.66%
-15.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.33
$56.39
$36.49
$42.43
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$54.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$53.20
$44.34
$45.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GBCI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.69%
Comparison:
GBCI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 37.24% higher than the industry
& is -26.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GBCI
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.28%
Monthly returns:
1.11%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 22.19% above industry average
Classification:
GBCI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
GBCI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.77%
Weekly Volatility:
6.19%
Monthly Volatility:
12.39%
Yearly Volatility:
42.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.63%
Weekly VaR:
-12.60%
Monthly VaR:
-25.20%
How Much Can the price of
GBCI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.28%
This translates to price declining to:
$38.72
This translates to price declining to:
$6.29
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GBCI is a 77.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 52.34% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.02% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GBCI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.808
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.143
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.738
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.579
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.873
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.88
Beta is -9.80% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -17.63% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -42.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is 308.96% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 302% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GBCI
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -11.93% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.96%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.50%
Overall debt rating:
Lowest medium B grade (second lowest)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.50%
WACC is -25.53% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.87
Annual revenue growth rate is -64.27% below industry average
EPS:
$2.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -4.63% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 28.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -26.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.44
EBITDA per share
$3.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
GBCI
P/E Ratio:
19.38
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.64
P/E ratio is 23.94% higher than main peers & is 56.16% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.13
GBCI is 49.13% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.71
Price to sales ratio is 56.89% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.87
Price to free cash flow: 11.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.13% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
18.26%
Net income growth rate is -66.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.16%
Dividend yeild: 2.17%
Previous Dividend: $0.33
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.33
Previous Dividend: $1.07
Expected next dividend best case: $0.39
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.27
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 24.51%
Expected next dividend payment date: 20/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/11/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 28/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 21/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/12/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 30/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-11--$0.33
2021-12-06--$0.32
2021-07-12--$0.32
2022-01-10--$0.10
2021-10-08--$0.32
2021-04-12--$0.31
Dividend growth rate is 4.05% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.20%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.03%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.37
Interest coverage ratio is 2358.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.13%
Annual debt growth is 573% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.524
Statistical significance of correlation:
GBCI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 4.72% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.016
Kurtosis
7.039
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.633
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GBCI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
17.88%
Effective tax rate is -17.02% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 47.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.65%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
237.2K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
111.3K
Each employee generates -51% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
79.0K
Each employee generates -44% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.7K
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.4M
Each employee generates -74% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GBCI
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLY)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGR)
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
VIRTU FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:VIRT)
PACWEST BANCORP (XNAS:PACW)
BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:BOKF)
SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION (XNAS:SSB)
UNITED BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:UBSI)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
815.68M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
347.48M
360.29M
12.81M
-
-
710.04M
18.78M
32.90M
382.60M
-
271.75M
330.92M
59.17M
271.75M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.77M
Change in Working Capital :
- 41189.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4794.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
41.37M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
78.36M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3864.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 585630.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
436.81M
6.54B
6.97B
81.47M
-
-
-
373.12M
985.39M
49.59M
10.13B
-
-
11.53B
37.63B
26.10B
2.28M
-
-
-
-
-
269.92M
-
269.92M
23.44B
23.17B
1.11M
841.49M
- 247809.0K
2.34B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.93B
26.10B
16.66B
269.92M
- 166886.0K
442.89M
- 309675.00K
- 456283.00K
-
-
-
- 11295.00K
388.34M
377.04M
-
- 881.00K
436.81M
437.69M
78.36M
- 3864.00K
74.49M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GBCI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.58
$61.71
$65.00
$68.47
$72.12