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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GTLB
Name:
Gitlab Inc. (XNAS:GTLB)
Sector:
- 74513.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Total Employees:
1,630
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.98% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GITLAB INC.(GTLB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48.31
One Month Price Target:
$48.97
Six Month Price Target :
$52.29
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$56.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.29
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.76
This week:
$33.67
This month :
$19.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
147.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.01%
-15.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.74
$65.06
$17.88
$31.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.68
$35.98
$38.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GTLB
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.22%
Comparison:
GTLB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -330.16% lower than the industry
& is -197.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GTLB
Daily returns:
-0.14%
Weekly returns:
-0.68%
Monthly returns:
-2.72%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -428.70% below industry average
Classification:
GTLB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.05
Statistical test of Returns:
GTLB has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.53%
Weekly Volatility:
14.61%
Monthly Volatility:
29.22%
Yearly Volatility:
101.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.55%
Weekly VaR:
-30.31%
Monthly VaR:
-60.62%
How Much Can the price of
GTLB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-55%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.65
This translates to price declining to:
$7.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GTLB is a 327.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 266.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 81.76% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GTLB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.46
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.918
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
-0.039
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.109
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 83.83% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.526
Alpha is 2129.16% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -3350% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GTLB
Equity cost of capital:
0.200
Equity cost of capital is 62.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
15.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-30.86
Annual revenue growth rate is -27.71% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$1.56
Valuation Analysis Today of
GTLB
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
GTLB is -119.57% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
25.65
Price to sales ratio is 123.64% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-30.86
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
47.00%
Net income growth rate is -80.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
27.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
122.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-78.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-452.02
Interest coverage ratio is -950.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.004
Statistical significance of correlation:
GTLB does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -99.20% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.078
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.147
Kurtosis
2.551
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.878
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GTLB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
353%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-87.88%
Operating profit margin is 358.61% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
353%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.17%
Effective tax rate is -100.65% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
100.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is -870.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-64.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1574.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
2.74
Current ratio is -8.52% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
38.4
Cash conversion cycle is -59.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-47.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
170.6K
Each employee generates -51% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 141.4K
Each employee generates -1416% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 143.0K
Each employee generates 720% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 45.7K
Each employee generates 488% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
8.6K
Each employee generates 488% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 79.64%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 5109.20% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GTLB
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
278.15M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
32.44M
245.71M
133.81M
126.96M
356.33M
229.37M
-
490.14M
1.23M
510.00K
1.71M
- 230529.00K
- 244427.00K
- 233149.00K
- 234555.00K
405.00K
- 233149.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
222.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
111.85M
Change in Working Capital :
11.94M
Accounts Receivables:
- 14745.00K
Other Working Capital:
22.89M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 5395.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 73580.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/31/21
2021
FY
282.85M
-
282.85M
39.67M
-
25.97M
348.49M
-
-
-
-
-
13.28M
14.07M
-
362.57M
3.11M
-
2.11M
103.54M
20.53M
127.18M
-
435.98M
466.61M
-
593.79M
-
- 398199.00K
- 19915.0K
-
January 31, 2021 at 7:00:00 AM
522.58M
- 231222.00K
362.57M
-
-
- 282850.0K
-
- 842.00K
- 842.00K
-
-
- 820.00K
-
13.77M
12.95M
1.00M
- 60477.00K
282.85M
343.33M
- 73580.00K
- 933.00K
- 74513.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GTLB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$56.28
$65.56
$76.38
$88.98
$103.66