_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (XNAS:GILD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GILD
Name:
GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:GILD)
Sector:
1.59B
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�General
CEO:
Mr. Daniel O'Day
Total Employees:
14,400
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 46.99% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.(GILD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�GENERAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
63.82
One Month Price Target:
$63.94
Six Month Price Target :
$64.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$65.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$63.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$64.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.52
This week:
$58.67
This month :
$53.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
79.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.25B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.73%
-8.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.52
$69.65
$53.12
$57.99
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$68.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$67.02
$59.57
$60.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GILD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.13%
Comparison:
GILD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -106.42% lower than the industry
& is -105.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GILD
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.03%
Monthly returns:
0.13%
Yearly returns:
11.30%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -85.92% below industry average
Classification:
GILD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
GILD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.76%
Weekly Volatility:
3.94%
Monthly Volatility:
7.88%
Yearly Volatility:
27.28%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 1.80% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.61%
Weekly VaR:
-8.07%
Monthly VaR:
-16.15%
How Much Can the price of
GILD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-55.93%
This translates to price declining to:
$54.75
This translates to price declining to:
$28.12
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GILD is a 13.96% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -2.37% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GILD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.33
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.493
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.698
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.167
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.355
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.371
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.778
Beta is -57.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.492
Beta is -33.10% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.67%
Sustainable growth rate is -74.88% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.038
Alpha is -179.64% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -243% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GILD
Equity cost of capital:
0.054
Equity cost of capital is -17.10% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.75%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.96%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.96%
WACC is -10.24% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.02
Annual revenue growth rate is 19.18% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.58
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.15%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -382.82% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�General industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.86
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.40%
Equity growth rate per share is 9.67% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$20.09
EBITDA per share
$7.16
Valuation Analysis Today of
GILD
P/E Ratio:
19.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.9
P/E ratio is 8.73% higher than main peers & is 7.59% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $64.75
GILD is -1.44% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $104.79
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $75.28
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.91
Price to sales ratio is -21.61% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.02
Price to free cash flow: 8.12
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.45% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17.93%
Net income growth rate is -86.49% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 20.93%
Dividend yeild: 4.51%
Previous Dividend: $0.73
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.73
Previous Dividend: $2.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.75
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.71
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.70
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.52%
Expected next dividend payment date: 27/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.73
2021-12-14--$0.71
2021-06-14--$0.71
2022-03-14--$0.73
2021-09-14--$0.71
2021-03-12--$0.71
Dividend growth rate is -79.78% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
126.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
34.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.37% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.13
Interest coverage ratio is -78.69% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.99%
Annual debt growth is 2568% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.95%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.409
Statistical significance of correlation:
GILD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is -21.01% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
5.048
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.603
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GILD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
303%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.30%
Operating profit margin is 21.13% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
303%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.39%
Effective tax rate is 123.42% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is -77.43% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -31.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.48
Current ratio is 4.76% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
58.4
Cash conversion cycle is -41.26% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.9M
Each employee generates 69% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
622.9K
Each employee generates 58% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
313.5K
Each employee generates 42% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
110.6K
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.5M
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.43%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -72.24% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GILD
MODERNA, INC. (XNAS:MRNA)
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:REGN)
INTUITIVE SURGICAL, INC. (XNAS:ISRG)
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:VRTX)
Sanofi SA (XNAS:SNY)
BioNTech SE (XNAS:BNTX)
AMGEN INC. (XNAS:AMGN)
IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:IDXX)
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE, INC. (XNAS:WBA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�46%
Hold�63%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
27.47B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.66B
20.81B
8.19B
-
5.27B
-
-
13.47B
-
982.00M
2.10B
8.97B
7.23B
4.52B
5.86B
1.37B
4.52B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
525.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 651000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
130.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1162000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
699.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.99B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.84B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 30000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 641000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.30B
1.03B
5.33B
3.79B
1.48B
2.04B
12.63B
5.25B
8.31B
30.33B
1.43B
-
5.13B
50.45B
100.90B
63.08B
583.00M
1.03B
467.00M
-
6.95B
8.56B
25.18B
5.74B
34.61B
-
43.17B
1.00M
14.99B
73.0M
4.87B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
20.13B
19.93B
63.09B
2.46B
26.21B
21.9B
625.00M
- 1024000.00K
- 1070000.00K
- 500000.00K
94.00M
- 352000.00K
- 945000.00K
- 91000.00K
- 1794000.00K
- 18000.00K
- 1042000.00K
4.30B
5.34B
1.84B
- 247000.00K
1.59B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GILD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$75.93
$77.61
$79.32
$81.07
$82.87