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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (XNAS:ROCK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ROCK
Name:
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
Sector:
- 12163.00K
Industry:
Building Products & Equipment
CEO:
Mr. William Bosway
Total Employees:
2,011
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -81.77% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC.(ROCK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.01
One Month Price Target:
$40.27
Six Month Price Target :
$41.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.6
This week:
$34.61
This month :
$29.22
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.25B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
31.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.25%
-15.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.22
$46.12
$28.80
$33.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.38
$35.54
$36.64
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ROCK
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.25%
Comparison:
ROCK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -110.15% lower than the industry
& is -111.10% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ROCK
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.03%
Yearly returns:
21.19%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -98.39% below industry average
Classification:
ROCK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
ROCK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.94%
Weekly Volatility:
6.57%
Monthly Volatility:
13.14%
Yearly Volatility:
45.51%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -19.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.03%
Weekly VaR:
-13.49%
Monthly VaR:
-26.98%
How Much Can the price of
ROCK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
-93.45%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.47
This translates to price declining to:
$2.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ROCK is a 90.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 63.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ROCK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.16
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.988
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.398
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.107
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.5
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.579
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.954
Beta is 21.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.393
Beta is -16.88% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.44%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.49% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.107
Alpha is -226.38% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -684% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ROCK
Equity cost of capital:
0.111
Equity cost of capital is -12.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.25%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.56%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.56%
WACC is 5.43% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$43.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -14.38% below industry average
EPS:
$2.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -53.17% lower than the Building Products & Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.02
-
-
Debt per share
$1.64
EBITDA per share
$4.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
ROCK
P/E Ratio:
15.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.49
P/E ratio is -8.62% lower than main peers & is -40.20% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $63.33
ROCK is -36.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.92
Price to sales ratio is -67.51% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.51
Price to free cash flow: 1663.76
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
15.30%
Net income growth rate is -81.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.91%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -91.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
82.69
Interest coverage ratio is -80.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-61.93%
Annual debt growth is -1131% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 35.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.366
Statistical significance of correlation:
ROCK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -39.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.089
Kurtosis
10.594
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.827
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ROCK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.69%
Operating profit margin is -121.98% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.45%
Effective tax rate is 20.78% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -57.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
1.69
Current ratio is -42.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
19.6
Cash conversion cycle is -40.35% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.73%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
681.3K
Each employee generates 15% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
69.1K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.9K
Each employee generates -51% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 6.0K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
376.4K
Each employee generates -165% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ROCK
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
Raven Property Group Limited (MISX:RAVN)
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ATSG)
Golden Ocean Group Limited. (XNAS:GOGL)
ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:ICFI)
NV5 Global, Inc. (XNAS:NVEE)
Lilium NV (XNAS:LILM)
CSW INDUSTRIALS, INC. (XNAS:CSWI)
HILLMAN SOLUTIONS CORP. (XNAS:HLMN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.08B
294.84M
-
-
181.17M
-
-
181.17M
-
1.68M
30.33M
138.92M
105.37M
78.32M
108.06M
28.59M
78.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.34M
Differed Income Tax :
17.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.35M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33508.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 11101.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.59M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7754.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4409.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
15.57M
-
15.57M
245.81M
187.26M
36.84M
485.47M
113.80M
510.54M
132.11M
-
-
420.00K
756.87M
-
1.24B
159.21M
-
-
60.99M
67.50M
287.70M
51.74M
24.27M
116.24M
-
403.94M
340.00K
561.03M
- 16.0K
277.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.26B
838.40M
1.24B
-
51.74M
36.2M
-
7.00K
- 4402.00K
- 29000.00K
-
- 3461.00K
-
47.50M
15.04M
- 159.00K
2.72M
15.57M
12.85M
- 7754.00K
- 4409.00K
- 12163.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ROCK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.54
$51.24
$55.22
$59.52
$64.15