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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gevo, Inc. (XNAS:GEVO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GEVO
Name:
GEVO, INC. (XNAS:GEVO)
Sector:
- 43688.00K
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Dr. Patrick Gruber
Total Employees:
99
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -67.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GEVO, INC.(GEVO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.82
One Month Price Target:
$2.87
Six Month Price Target :
$3.13
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.13
This week:
$1.28
This month :
-$.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
618.49M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
235.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
232.72%
-39.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.01
$4.53
-$0.37
$1.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.05
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.73
$1.59
$1.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GEVO
Sharpe Ratio:
4.16%
Comparison:
GEVO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 96.50% higher than the industry
& ratio is 82.61% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GEVO
Daily returns:
0.51%
Weekly returns:
2.57%
Monthly returns:
10.28%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 402.26% above industry average
Classification:
GEVO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
GEVO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
12.14%
Weekly Volatility:
27.15%
Monthly Volatility:
54.29%
Yearly Volatility:
188.07%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-24.42%
Weekly VaR:
-54.60%
Monthly VaR:
-109.20%
How Much Can the price of
GEVO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-91%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.26
This translates to price declining to:
$0.42
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GEVO is a 670.75% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 560.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 261.18% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GEVO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--3.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.776
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
2.511
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.344
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.373
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.583
Beta is 104.43% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is 177.97% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.981
Alpha is 629.58% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6243% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GEVO
Equity cost of capital:
0.253
Equity cost of capital is 127.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.22%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.22%
WACC is 160.46% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.24
Annual revenue growth rate is -6000.40% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-49.65%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -5576.36% lower than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.37
EBITDA per share
-$0.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
GEVO
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.2
-
-
GEVO is -123.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
856.81
Price to sales ratio is 30953.11% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.24
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-94.73%
Net income growth rate is 71.35% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
8.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-238.51
Interest coverage ratio is -1234.29% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7075.83%
Annual debt growth is 1821% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.165
Statistical significance of correlation:
GEVO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is -71.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.096
Kurtosis
197.473
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
10.763
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GEVO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-11875%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8548.71%
Operating profit margin is 2936.10% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-11875%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-12.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -142.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-10.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is -486.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
18.69
Current ratio is 597.27% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
665.6
Cash conversion cycle is 978.55% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
7.8K
Each employee generates -99% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 597.5K
Each employee generates -704% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 654.7K
Each employee generates -2161% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 441.3K
Each employee generates 1088% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.1M
Each employee generates 1088% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 65.81%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 529.46% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GEVO
Largo Inc. (XNAS:LGO)
MERCER INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNAS:MERC)
PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC. (XNAS:PLL)
CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY (XNAS:CENX)
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
UNITED STATES LIME & MINERALS, INC. (XNAS:USLM)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
NXEO
FERROGLOBE PLC (XNAS:GSM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
774.00K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
14.35M
- 13578.00K
6.59M
-
30.99M
-
9.88M
47.45M
435.00K
248.00K
5.42M
- 59150.00K
- 66167.00K
- 64819.00K
- 64819.00K
-
- 64819.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.44M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.26M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3776.00K
Accounts Receivables:
810.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.29M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 12460.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 31218.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 31993.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
44.63M
265.81M
310.44M
168.00K
2.74M
22.08M
335.42M
185.99M
-
8.66M
32.72M
-
75.87M
303.24M
-
638.66M
1.40M
4.53M
-
-
12.01M
17.94M
86.19M
95.00K
86.28M
-
104.23M
2.02M
- 573048.00K
- 1587.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
61.80M
534.44M
638.66M
298.54M
90.72M
46.1M
71.08M
- 10.00K
7.86M
- 137.00K
-
-
-
- 217.00K
- 354.00K
-
- 4953.00K
131.08M
136.03M
- 12460.00K
- 31228.00K
- 43688.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GEVO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.56
$3.12
$3.80
$4.63
$5.63