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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gentherm Incorporated (XNAS:THRM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
THRM
Name:
GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)
Sector:
- 6693.00K
Industry:
Auto Parts
CEO:
Mr. Phillip Eyler
Total Employees:
10,474
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 197.06% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GENTHERM INCORPORATED(THRM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.76
One Month Price Target:
$59.15
Six Month Price Target :
$61.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$63.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.1
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.35
This week:
$51.13
This month :
$43.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.95%
-15.17%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$74.60
$67.29
$42.92
$50.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$64.91
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.35
$52.59
$54.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
THRM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.58%
Comparison:
THRM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 163.09% higher than the industry
& ratio is 13.03% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
THRM
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.41%
Monthly returns:
1.66%
Yearly returns:
9.58%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 107.43% above industry average
Classification:
THRM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
THRM has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.87%
Weekly Volatility:
6.42%
Monthly Volatility:
12.83%
Yearly Volatility:
44.45%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.77% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.81%
Weekly VaR:
-12.99%
Monthly VaR:
-25.99%
How Much Can the price of
THRM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-90.02%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.82
This translates to price declining to:
$5.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
THRM is a 83.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
THRM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.806
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.139
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.101
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.602
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.699
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.341
Beta is -12.20% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.212
Beta is -2.87% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -11.17% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.087
Alpha is -560.93% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 551% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
THRM
Equity cost of capital:
0.112
Equity cost of capital is -2.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.49%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.80%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.80%
WACC is 20.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.29% below industry average
EPS:
$2.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.16%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 410.20% higher than the Auto Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.82
-
-
Debt per share
$1.70
EBITDA per share
$3.93
Valuation Analysis Today of
THRM
P/E Ratio:
36.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.89
P/E ratio is 91.15% higher than main peers & is 69.10% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $45.91
THRM is 28.00% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.9
Price to sales ratio is -16.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.97
Price to free cash flow: 32.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
145.22%
Net income growth rate is 291.15% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
8.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.81%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
56.91
Interest coverage ratio is 31.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-71.17%
Annual debt growth is -363% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.447
Statistical significance of correlation:
THRM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.534
Stock price is -16.39% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.534
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0
Kurtosis
4.365
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.376
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
THRM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.63%
Operating profit margin is -8.96% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.18%
Effective tax rate is -19.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -48.58% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -18.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is 23.30% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.8
Cash conversion cycle is -61.75% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
97.9K
Each employee generates -70% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
12.4K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.9K
Each employee generates -80% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.6K
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
34.8K
Each employee generates -110% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.54%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -171.59% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
THRM
URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC. (XNAS:URBN)
MAKEMYTRIP LIMITED (XNAS:MMYT)
MILLERKNOLL, INC. (XNAS:MLKN)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:CVCO)
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEB)
QURATE RETAIL, INC. (XNAS:QRTEA)
RUSH ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:RUSHB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
745.20M
280.08M
78.05M
-
110.34M
-
-
188.38M
-
2.29M
38.50M
130.21M
88.45M
72.27M
89.42M
17.15M
72.27M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.58M
Differed Income Tax :
- 778.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.28M
Change in Working Capital :
- 23872.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 25788.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
363.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 684.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5659.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
177.92M
-
177.92M
235.81M
176.17M
12.58M
602.47M
179.73M
64.98M
34.98M
-
69.42M
15.53M
364.64M
-
967.11M
156.24M
8.42M
19.53M
-
79.04M
243.70M
56.23M
11.40M
67.63M
-
311.33M
117.83M
577.96M
- 45728.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
933.58M
655.79M
967.11M
-
64.65M
- 113269.0K
-
- 298.00K
- 5957.00K
-
-
-
-
- 3750.00K
- 3750.00K
- 2298.00K
- 12689.00K
177.92M
190.61M
- 684.00K
- 6009.00K
- 6693.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
THRM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.58
$85.88
$92.68
$100.01
$107.93