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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gentex Corporation (XNAS:GNTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GNTX
Name:
GENTEX CORPORATION (XNAS:GNTX)
Sector:
92.07M
Industry:
Auto Parts
CEO:
Mr. Steven Downing
Total Employees:
4,998
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -376.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GENTEX CORPORATION(GNTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.78
One Month Price Target:
$26.91
Six Month Price Target :
$27.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$26.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.68
This week:
$24.33
This month :
$21.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
235.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.01%
-10.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.88
$29.55
$21.68
$24.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.80
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.30
$24.76
$25.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GNTX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.14%
Comparison:
GNTX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -85.64% lower than the industry
& is -93.83% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GNTX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
9.58%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -70.77% below industry average
Classification:
GNTX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
GNTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.00%
Weekly Volatility:
4.48%
Monthly Volatility:
8.95%
Yearly Volatility:
31.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.10%
Weekly VaR:
-9.16%
Monthly VaR:
-18.33%
How Much Can the price of
GNTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.49%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.47
This translates to price declining to:
$9.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GNTX is a 29.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.83% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.07% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GNTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.807
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.142
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.798
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.676
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.549
Beta is -43.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.212
Beta is -28.41% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.91%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.27% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is 235.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -401% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GNTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -20.60% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.26
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.97% below industry average
EPS:
$1.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -151.01% lower than the Auto Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.88
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 13.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -190.08% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
GNTX
P/E Ratio:
19.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
972.33
P/E ratio is -97.97% lower than main peers & is -7.66% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.11
GNTX is -11.05% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $158.59
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.56
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.67
Price to sales ratio is 60.29% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.26
Price to free cash flow: 30.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is 60.55% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-5.64%
Net income growth rate is -115.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.54%
Dividend yeild: 1.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.12
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.43%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 20/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/08/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-07--$0.12
2021-10-07--$0.12
2021-04-08--$0.12
2022-01-06--$0.12
2021-07-08--$0.12
2021-01-07--$0.12
Dividend growth rate is -105.25% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-14.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
9.07%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.76
Statistical significance of correlation:
GNTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.534
Stock price is 42.15% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.534
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.012
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
4.737
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.031
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GNTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.11%
Operating profit margin is 133.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
139%
Effective Tax Rate:
12.88%
Effective tax rate is -46.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is -19.00% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is 67.60% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.99
Current ratio is 99.22% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46
Cash conversion cycle is -23.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.03%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
343.3K
Each employee generates 7% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
96.6K
Each employee generates 55% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
67.0K
Each employee generates 96% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.4K
Each employee generates 178% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
245.1K
Each employee generates 178% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 1.58%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -110.71% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
GNTX
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:PENN)
CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CHDN)
MATTEL, INC. (XNAS:MAT)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED (XNAS:WYNN)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FOXF)
REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC. (XNAS:REYN)
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.72B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.12B
596.82M
122.09M
-
95.38M
-
-
217.47M
-
-
98.22M
482.60M
379.35M
334.87M
384.38M
49.51M
334.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.71M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.79M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3383.34K
Accounts Receivables:
- 31666.77K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
313.42K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
115.96M
Investments in PP&E:
- 23892.17K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 15889.06K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
279.71M
6.89M
286.60M
281.46M
362.74M
24.73M
955.53M
468.41M
313.93M
247.07M
175.82M
-
19.62M
1.22B
-
2.18B
140.89M
-
-
-
98.34M
239.22M
-
12.19M
12.19M
-
251.41M
14.07M
1.04B
- 5127.4K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.34B
1.93B
2.18B
182.72M
-
- 279708.4K
38.16M
- 421.68K
- 2044.30K
-
-
- 71252.02K
- 28589.63K
3.32M
- 96517.50K
-
17.40M
279.71M
262.31M
115.96M
- 23892.17K
92.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GNTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.48
$375.83
$397.74
$420.94
$445.48