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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
General Motors Company (XNYS:GM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GM
Name:
GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY (XNYS:GM)
Sector:
- 2547000.00K
Industry:
Auto Manufacturers
CEO:
Ms. Mary Barra
Total Employees:
157,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 42.11% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY(GM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO MANUFACTURERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
38.47
One Month Price Target:
$38.74
Six Month Price Target :
$40.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$41.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$38.29
Price Upper limit ($) :
$38.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.04
This week:
$33.03
This month :
$27.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
56.48B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.46B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.94%
-17.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$49.76
$44.57
$27.18
$32.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.89
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$41.78
$34.04
$35.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GM
Sharpe Ratio:
1.68%
Comparison:
GM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -54.06% lower than the industry
& is -26.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GM
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.22%
Yearly returns:
42.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.70% below industry average
Classification:
GM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
GM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.11%
Weekly Volatility:
6.95%
Monthly Volatility:
13.90%
Yearly Volatility:
48.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.32%
Weekly VaR:
-14.14%
Monthly VaR:
-28.27%
How Much Can the price of
GM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$29.12
This translates to price declining to:
$5.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GM is a 99.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 70.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.59% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.828
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.171
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.599
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.979
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.847
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.43
Beta is -13.47% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.758
Beta is -29.64% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.74%
Sustainable growth rate is -30.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.030
Alpha is -88.95% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 194% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GM
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is -23.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.67%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.67%
WACC is -45.37% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$89.51
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.84
Annual revenue growth rate is 4.99% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -93.54% lower than the Auto Manufacturers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -91.94%
Equity growth rate per share is 131.39% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$52.65
EBITDA per share
$16.70
Valuation Analysis Today of
GM
P/E Ratio:
7.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.61
P/E ratio is -79.46% lower than main peers & is -82.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $249.73
GM is -84.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $28.71
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.43
Price to sales ratio is -98.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.84
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
21.49%
Net income growth rate is -99.55% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.73%
Dividend yeild: 1.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.38
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.38
Previous Dividend: $0.76
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.38
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/06/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/03/2020
Dividend History:
2020-03-05--$0.38
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-12-05--$0.38
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
123.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
150.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.16%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.57% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
26.3
Interest coverage ratio is -204.95% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.43%
Annual debt growth is -101% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 12.36%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.661
Statistical significance of correlation:
GM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is 34.90% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
5.122
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.016
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
54%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.32%
Operating profit margin is -99.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
54%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.85%
Effective tax rate is 111.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.00%
Return on equity (ROE) is 10.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.95%
Return on assets (ROA) is 162.72% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.11
Current ratio is -76.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.3
Cash conversion cycle is -81.24% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
831.3K
Each employee generates 60% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
155.1K
Each employee generates -189% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
63.3K
Each employee generates -128% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 16.2K
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.0M
Each employee generates -43% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GM
THE TJX COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:TJX)
FORD MOTOR COMPANY (XNYS:F)
Stellantis NV (XNYS:STLA)
COMCAST HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:CCZ)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (XNYS:HMC)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (XNYS:CMG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�54%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
130.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
113.01B
17.50B
-
-
6.78B
-
2.48B
9.26B
- 136000.00K
926.00M
11.93B
24.36B
8.24B
9.94B
11.30B
1.57B
9.94B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.89B
Differed Income Tax :
- 81000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 2784000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 729000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.10B
Investments in PP&E:
- 2990000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3451000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
16.35B
9.91B
26.26B
40.39B
14.84B
7.11B
88.59B
78.29B
-
-
10.40B
21.29B
47.86B
162.90B
-
251.49B
25.24B
33.04B
-
-
21.28B
79.56B
76.77B
28.11B
104.87B
-
184.43B
15.00M
43.88B
- 8814000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
122.27B
62.10B
246.52B
20.31B
109.81B
93.5B
1.96B
572.00M
- 3909000.00K
- 10827000.00K
-
-
- 73000.00K
9.05B
- 1852000.00K
93.00M
- 3564000.00K
19.98B
23.54B
2.10B
- 4651000.00K
- 2547000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$41.88
$107.40
$116.33
$126.00
$136.47