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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
General Mills, Inc. (XNYS:GIS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GIS
Name:
GENERAL MILLS, INC. (XNYS:GIS)
Sector:
265.80M
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Jeffrey Harmening
Total Employees:
32,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -243.05% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GENERAL MILLS, INC.(GIS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
76.72
One Month Price Target:
$76.86
Six Month Price Target :
$77.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$78.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$76.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$76.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.31
This week:
$71.33
This month :
$65.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
44.86B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
595.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.78%
-11.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.89
$82.69
$65.55
$70.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$81.00
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.89
$72.43
$73.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GIS
Sharpe Ratio:
3.91%
Comparison:
GIS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 198.61% higher than the industry
& ratio is 71.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GIS
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.40%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 99.69% above industry average
Classification:
GIS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
GIS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.56%
Weekly Volatility:
3.50%
Monthly Volatility:
6.99%
Yearly Volatility:
24.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.14%
Weekly VaR:
-7.02%
Monthly VaR:
-14.05%
How Much Can the price of
GIS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-48.67%
This translates to price declining to:
$67.81
This translates to price declining to:
$39.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GIS is -0.84% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -15.05% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GIS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.718
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.015
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.174
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.23
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.317
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.708
Beta is -54.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -44.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.25%
Sustainable growth rate is 13.22% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.115
Alpha is 812.38% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 729% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GIS
Equity cost of capital:
0.054
Equity cost of capital is -25.19% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.58
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.00% below industry average
EPS:
$4.42
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -51.78% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.62
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.72%
Equity growth rate per share is -43.99% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.34
EBITDA per share
$5.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
GIS
P/E Ratio:
17.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.07
P/E ratio is -24.77% lower than main peers & is -55.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $170.79
GIS is -55.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $66.91
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $41.39
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.45
Price to sales ratio is 5.81% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.58
Price to free cash flow: 16.59
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.15% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
3.13%
Net income growth rate is -70.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.86%
Dividend yeild: 2.66%
Previous Dividend: $0.51
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.51
Previous Dividend: $2.04
Expected next dividend best case: $0.52
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.41%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/08/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-07--$0.51
2021-10-07--$0.51
2021-04-08--$0.51
2022-01-07--$0.51
2021-07-08--$0.51
2021-01-07--$0.51
Dividend growth rate is -213.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
106.55%
Net debt to equity ratio:
126.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.86%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -40.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.66%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.60%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.367
Statistical significance of correlation:
GIS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is -14.45% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
10.941
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.14
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GIS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
134%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.15%
Operating profit margin is 234.54% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
134%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.31%
Effective tax rate is -50.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is 110.38% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.97%
Return on assets (ROA) is 56.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.78
Current ratio is -71.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-55
Cash conversion cycle is -212.04% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.19%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
573.1K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
104.2K
Each employee generates -8% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
69.3K
Each employee generates 33% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
8.2K
Each employee generates -320% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
800.4K
Each employee generates -320% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GIS
SYSCO CORPORATION (XNYS:SYY)
Ambev SA (XNYS:ABEV)
THE HERSHEY COMPANY (XNYS:HSY)
CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:STZ)
STZ-B
THE KROGER CO. (XNYS:KR)
KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (XNYS:KMB)
TYSON FOODS, INC. (XNYS:TSN)
BF-B
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�63%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/27/22
Revenue:
18.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.41B
6.22B
-
-
3.16B
-
- 800.00K
3.16B
-
-
577.40M
3.39B
3.01B
2.25B
2.75B
558.00M
2.25B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
145.80M
Differed Income Tax :
19.60M
Stock Based Compensation :
26.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 389500.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 1815200.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 59900.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
369.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 104000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1192900.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/29/21
2022
Q1
710.60M
-
710.60M
1.69B
1.94B
1.98B
6.32B
3.34B
14.55B
6.83B
-
-
1.29B
26.01B
-
32.33B
3.29B
2.63B
-
-
2.22B
8.14B
10.33B
1.81B
14.21B
-
22.35B
75.50M
17.38B
- 2397700.0K
- 5370000.00K
August 29, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
15.57B
9.69B
32.04B
-
12.95B
12.2B
-
- 1000.00K
- 1297900.00K
- 612100.00K
-
- 150100.00K
- 312300.00K
1.27B
195.00M
- 18100.00K
- 751200.00K
754.00M
1.51B
369.80M
- 104000.00K
265.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GIS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$97.53
$99.65
$101.81
$104.01
$106.27