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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Gaming And Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GLPI
Name:
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI)
Sector:
230.76M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Peter Carlino
Total Employees:
17
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -1.04% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF GAMING AND LEISURE PROPERTIES, INC.(GLPI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
48.13
One Month Price Target:
$48.41
Six Month Price Target :
$49.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$51.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$45.18
This week:
$41.52
This month :
$34.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
255.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.41%
-41.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.84
$55.53
$34.42
$40.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.48
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$52.13
$42.76
$44.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GLPI
Sharpe Ratio:
1.97%
Comparison:
GLPI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.32% lower than the industry
& is -13.71% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GLPI
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.37%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.96% above industry average
Classification:
GLPI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
GLPI has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.02%
Weekly Volatility:
6.76%
Monthly Volatility:
13.52%
Yearly Volatility:
46.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.15% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.14%
Weekly VaR:
-13.73%
Monthly VaR:
-27.45%
How Much Can the price of
GLPI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.82
This translates to price declining to:
$7.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GLPI is a 93.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 65.99% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.62% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GLPI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.68
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.961
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.336
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.935
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.061
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.171
Beta is -11.88% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is 8.22% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is 21.25% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 393% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GLPI
Equity cost of capital:
0.102
Equity cost of capital is 5.55% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.33%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.38%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.38%
WACC is -2.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.55
Annual revenue growth rate is -73.70% below industry average
EPS:
$2.20
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.48%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -72.19% lower than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 4.43%
Equity growth rate per share is -64.27% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$26.59
EBITDA per share
$4.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
GLPI
P/E Ratio:
21.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.34
P/E ratio is -75.41% lower than main peers & is -73.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $182.86
GLPI is -73.68% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10
Price to sales ratio is 37.33% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.55
Price to free cash flow: 14.43
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.64%
Net income growth rate is -84.07% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 43.79%
Dividend yeild: 4.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.71
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.71
Previous Dividend: $2.31
Expected next dividend best case: $0.91
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.53
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 73.40%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.71
2021-12-23--$0.24
2021-09-09--$0.67
2022-03-10--$0.69
2021-12-08--$0.67
2021-06-10--$0.67
Dividend growth rate is 42.46% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
217.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
212.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
63.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
61.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -17.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.78
Interest coverage ratio is -28.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.94%
Annual debt growth is 398% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.86%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.631
Statistical significance of correlation:
GLPI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 4.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
59.276
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-3.449
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GLPI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
375%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
68.42%
Operating profit margin is 278.56% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
375%
Effective Tax Rate:
4.67%
Effective tax rate is -56.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -3.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.7x
Current Ratio:
4.98
Current ratio is 182.66% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-2.6
Cash conversion cycle is -105.77% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
72.3M
Each employee generates 809% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
64.6M
Each employee generates 879% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.9M
Each employee generates 934% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.6M
Each employee generates 881% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
507.0M
Each employee generates 881% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GLPI
CYRUSONE INC. (XNAS:CONE)
LAMAR ADVERTISING COMPANY (XNAS:LAMR)
REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION (XNAS:REG)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCN)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNC)
FirstService Corp (XNAS:FSV)
BROOKFIEL PPTY PRT SRS 2 CM CL A UNT (XNAS:BPYPO)
OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:OPEN)
BROOKFIELD PROPERTY PARTNERS L.P. (XNAS:BPYPN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.23B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
77.47M
1.15B
-
60.90M
60.90M
-
271.74M
332.64M
95.00K
290.55M
255.62M
1.10B
841.46M
526.13M
554.51M
25.92M
526.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
65.12M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.60M
Change in Working Capital :
14.54M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
24.23M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
233.18M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 129047.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
156.02M
-
156.02M
1.87B
-
77.73M
2.10B
182.62M
-
662.69M
-
-
7.77B
8.62B
-
10.72B
3.63M
-
-
327.53M
91.18M
422.33M
6.79B
37.75M
6.83B
-
7.25B
2.48M
- 1823139.00K
-
4.95B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
410.11M
3.13B
10.38B
-
6.79B
6.6B
-
- 2370.00K
- 131417.00K
- 422927.00K
-
-
- 230396.00K
- 17017.00K
- 670340.00K
-
- 568575.00K
156.02M
724.60M
233.18M
- 2421.00K
230.76M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GLPI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$51.73
$103.98
$111.19
$118.90
$127.15