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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
G-Iii Apparel Group, Ltd. (XNAS:GIII) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
GIII
Name:
G-III APPAREL GROUP, LTD. (XNAS:GIII)
Sector:
44.38M
Industry:
Apparel Manufacturing
CEO:
Mr. Morris Goldfarb
Total Employees:
2,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -151.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF G-III APPAREL GROUP, LTD.(GIII) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.6
One Month Price Target:
$19.87
Six Month Price Target :
$21.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$22.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.32
This week:
$14.5
This month :
$9.4
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
956.79M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
48.23M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
69.11%
-38.52%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.18
$25.33
$9.02
$13.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$23.75
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.71
$15.44
$16.49
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
GIII
Sharpe Ratio:
1.52%
Comparison:
GIII, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -269.79% lower than the industry
& is -33.25% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
GIII
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.91%
Yearly returns:
-3.61%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -737.31% below industry average
Classification:
GIII, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.54
Statistical test of Returns:
GIII has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.71%
Weekly Volatility:
12.77%
Monthly Volatility:
25.54%
Yearly Volatility:
88.47%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.31%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.00% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.63%
Weekly VaR:
-26.01%
Monthly VaR:
-52.02%
How Much Can the price of
GIII
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.80
This translates to price declining to:
$2.94
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
GIII is a 267.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 214.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 58.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
GIII
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.43
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.175
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.662
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.776
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.862
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.222
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.599
Beta is 51.67% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.537
Beta is 57.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.00%
Sustainable growth rate is -11.11% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.032
Alpha is -118.59% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 205% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
GIII
Equity cost of capital:
0.198
Equity cost of capital is 44.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.48%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
WACC is 64.63% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$60.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.7
Annual revenue growth rate is -149.52% below industry average
EPS:
$4.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -29.82% lower than the Apparel Manufacturing industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.74
-
-
Debt per share
$13.79
EBITDA per share
$7.03
Valuation Analysis Today of
GIII
P/E Ratio:
4.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
100.65
P/E ratio is -95.30% lower than main peers & is -79.51% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $95.53
GIII is -79.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.32
Price to sales ratio is -83.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.7
Price to free cash flow: 7.16
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-61.65%
Net income growth rate is -94.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
23.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.72%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9
Interest coverage ratio is -95.40% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
55.78%
Annual debt growth is 106% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 38.62%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.356
Statistical significance of correlation:
GIII has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.577
Stock price is -38.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.577
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.001
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.003
Kurtosis
37.374
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.081
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
GIII
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.86%
Operating profit margin is 83.77% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.41%
Effective tax rate is -21.50% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is 59.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
3.81
Current ratio is 66.09% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
24.9
Cash conversion cycle is -63.27% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.24%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 83% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
116.8K
Each employee generates 81% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
70.7K
Each employee generates 76% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.3K
Each employee generates -231% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
370.6K
Each employee generates -231% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
GIII
Vroom, Inc. (XNAS:VRM)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC. (XNAS:MCRI)
FAT BRANDS INC. (XNAS:FATBP)
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
BED BATH & BEYOND INC. (XNAS:BBBY)
MALIBU BOATS, INC. (XNAS:MBUU)
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
Poshmark Inc (XNAS:POSH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
2.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.90B
1.04B
-
-
691.82M
-
20.58M
712.40M
-
37.66M
26.68M
338.86M
318.81M
204.91M
273.96M
69.62M
204.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.04M
Differed Income Tax :
- 144.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.55M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1330.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 16731.00K
Other Working Capital:
10.02M
Other Non-Cash Items:
12.61M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.04M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
396.31M
-
396.31M
509.43M
346.67M
71.71M
1.32B
234.01M
262.07M
475.22M
60.85M
5.22M
37.23M
1.07B
-
2.40B
114.12M
48.76M
11.55M
-
184.87M
347.76M
665.00M
8.03M
693.09M
-
1.04B
264.00K
942.73M
- 9057.0K
423.94M
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
2.61B
1.36B
2.40B
-
713.76M
317.5M
-
- 2666.00K
- 2666.00K
- 418355.00K
-
-
-
419.50M
1.15M
- 1149.00K
44.38M
396.31M
351.93M
47.04M
- 2666.00K
44.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
GIII
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$22.90
$159.85
$185.90
$216.20
$251.44