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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Funko, Inc. (XNAS:FNKO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FNKO
Name:
FUNKO, INC. (XNAS:FNKO)
Sector:
- 42137.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Brian Mariotti
Total Employees:
1,242
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 336.77% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FUNKO, INC.(FNKO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.76
One Month Price Target:
$20.99
Six Month Price Target :
$22.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.67
This week:
$16.09
This month :
$11.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
50.13M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.84%
-40.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.45
$25.96
$11.07
$15.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.50
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.54
$17.01
$17.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FNKO
Sharpe Ratio:
3.37%
Comparison:
FNKO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 90.01% higher than the industry
& ratio is 48.00% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FNKO
Daily returns:
0.18%
Weekly returns:
0.89%
Monthly returns:
3.54%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 156.66% above industry average
Classification:
FNKO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
FNKO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.99%
Weekly Volatility:
11.15%
Monthly Volatility:
22.30%
Yearly Volatility:
77.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.71%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -5.53% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.06%
Weekly VaR:
-22.50%
Monthly VaR:
-45.00%
How Much Can the price of
FNKO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.92
This translates to price declining to:
$3.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FNKO is a 217.63% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 172.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 49.16% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FNKO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.181
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.67
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.257
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.101
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.834
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
2.117
Beta is -7.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is 37.35% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.12%
Sustainable growth rate is -64.40% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.260
Alpha is 606.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1654% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FNKO
Equity cost of capital:
0.165
Equity cost of capital is 28.21% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.81%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.81%
WACC is 49.12% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.54
Annual revenue growth rate is -110.96% below industry average
EPS:
$1.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
41.65%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 35.37% higher than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -892.41% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$4.68
EBITDA per share
$2.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
FNKO
P/E Ratio:
19.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.78
P/E ratio is 121.73% higher than main peers & is -54.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $48.48
FNKO is -57.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.91
Price to sales ratio is -69.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.54
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
337.95%
Net income growth rate is 102.25% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.42%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
69.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
69.65%
Debt to assets ratio:
24.32%
Net debt to assets ratio:
24.40%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.23% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
19.09
Interest coverage ratio is -74.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
22.75%
Annual debt growth is -52% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.88%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.446
Statistical significance of correlation:
FNKO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is -21.41% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.105
Kurtosis
10.392
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.056
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FNKO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.57%
Operating profit margin is 96.67% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.56%
Effective tax rate is 1.81% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -36.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -13.35% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.69
Current ratio is -23.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
57.4
Cash conversion cycle is -11.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
924.7K
Each employee generates 26% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
94.4K
Each employee generates -35% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.7K
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 33.9K
Each employee generates 18% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
452.7K
Each employee generates 18% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FNKO
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
WORKHORSE GROUP INC. (XNAS:WKHS)
HIBBETT, INC. (XNAS:HIBB)
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
THE CHILDREN'S PLACE, INC. (XNAS:PLCE)
MONARCH CASINO & RESORT, INC. (XNAS:MCRI)
ZUMIEZ INC. (XNAS:ZUMZ)
BLINK CHARGING CO. (XNAS:BLNK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.15B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
737.10M
411.36M
-
-
271.48M
-
263.78M
535.26M
-
6.14M
39.61M
117.24M
98.47M
53.05M
89.73M
18.45M
53.05M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.14M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 51191.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1108.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
208.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 22955.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 19182.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
33.13M
-
33.13M
188.22M
161.50M
20.17M
403.02M
159.33M
126.55M
185.95M
-
77.30M
13.18M
562.31M
-
965.33M
54.95M
33.94M
17.98M
-
149.64M
238.52M
234.73M
81.71M
317.06M
-
555.58M
5.00K
77.93M
142.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.27B
338.17M
893.75M
-
268.67M
235.5M
-
- 292.00K
- 19474.00K
- 4500.00K
-
-
- 3408.00K
78.00K
- 7830.00K
- 167.00K
- 50426.00K
33.13M
83.56M
- 22955.00K
- 19182.00K
- 42137.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FNKO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.98
$29.39
$33.24
$37.59
$42.52