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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fulton Financial Corporation (XNAS:FULT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FULT
Name:
FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FULT)
Sector:
- 107781.00K
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. E. Philip Wenger
Total Employees:
3,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2312.83% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION(FULT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.11
One Month Price Target:
$16.18
Six Month Price Target :
$16.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.04
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.17
This week:
$14.01
This month :
$11.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
167.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.79%
-13.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.48
$18.48
$11.74
$13.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.83
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.40
$14.38
$14.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FULT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.76%
Comparison:
FULT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -38.53% lower than the industry
& is -66.87% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FULT
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -33.07% below industry average
Classification:
FULT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
FULT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.86%
Weekly Volatility:
6.39%
Monthly Volatility:
12.78%
Yearly Volatility:
44.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.84%
Weekly VaR:
-13.05%
Monthly VaR:
-26.11%
How Much Can the price of
FULT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-90.45%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.45
This translates to price declining to:
$1.54
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FULT is a 84.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.03% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FULT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.643
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.91
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.686
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.492
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.88
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.457
Beta is -44.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -16.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.42%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.67% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.014
Alpha is -218.96% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -88% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FULT
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -10.96% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.37%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.98%
WACC is -26.04% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -35.74% below industry average
EPS:
$1.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -56.44% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 35.95%
Equity growth rate per share is -7.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.33
EBITDA per share
$2.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
FULT
P/E Ratio:
10.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.11
P/E ratio is -41.47% lower than main peers & is -19.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $19.48
FULT is -17.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.02
Price to sales ratio is -29.50% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.05
Price to free cash flow: 73.57
Price to free cash flow ratio is -70.18% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
43.83%
Net income growth rate is -20.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.39%
Dividend yeild: 3.23%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.18
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 18.43%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.15
2021-12-30--$0.14
2021-09-30--$0.14
2022-03-31--$0.15
2021-11-30--$0.08
2021-06-30--$0.14
Dividend growth rate is -21.76% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
21.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.98%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
3.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.82
Interest coverage ratio is 843.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-46.11%
Annual debt growth is -14660% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.471
Statistical significance of correlation:
FULT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -5.99% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
6.379
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.648
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FULT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.89%
Effective tax rate is -16.99% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -12.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -54.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.68
Current ratio is -95.53% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.99%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
279.4K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
124.3K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
83.4K
Each employee generates -41% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 33.7K
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -141% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FULT
Calamos Strat Tot Ret (XNAS:CSQ)
MARATHON DIGITAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MARA)
TRIUMPH BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:TBK)
COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:COLB)
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (XNAS:GGAL)
CVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:CVBF)
360 DigiTech, Inc. (XNAS:QFIN)
ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CORPORATION (XNAS:AUB)
FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:FIBK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
894.20M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
216.57M
-
342.27M
347.86M
5.59M
- 85881.00K
3.11M
711.48M
50.89M
21.99M
397.70M
-
266.72M
324.82M
58.10M
266.72M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.87M
Differed Income Tax :
- 55200.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.64M
Change in Working Capital :
- 130370.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 107781.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 335199.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
161.46M
-
161.46M
55.10M
-
996.50M
1.21B
218.26M
-
-
5.34B
-
-
6.10B
30.48B
25.60B
-
452.44M
-
-
-
452.44M
556.49M
-
556.49M
23.13B
23.03B
560.05M
1.32B
- 158855.0K
848.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
2.57B
25.60B
-
1.01B
847.5M
108.96M
- 62685.00K
- 288923.00K
- 65057.00K
2.79M
-
- 25032.00K
3.35M
- 83945.00K
-
- 480649.00K
1.16B
1.64B
- 107781.00K
-
- 107781.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FULT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.82
$23.00
$24.25
$25.57
$26.96