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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (XNAS:FLGT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLGT
Name:
FULGENT GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:FLGT)
Sector:
173.05M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Ming Hsieh
Total Employees:
645
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 244.05% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FULGENT GENETICS, INC.(FLGT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.6
One Month Price Target:
$41.97
Six Month Price Target :
$43.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$45.98
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$42.19
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$36.47
This week:
$30.12
This month :
$18.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.62%
-34.03%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$65.38
$54.22
$17.82
$28.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$50.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.21
$32.58
$34.99
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLGT
Sharpe Ratio:
5.83%
Comparison:
FLGT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 131.51% higher than the industry
& ratio is 155.77% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLGT
Daily returns:
0.37%
Weekly returns:
1.85%
Monthly returns:
7.39%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 217.70% above industry average
Classification:
FLGT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
FLGT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.19%
Weekly Volatility:
13.84%
Monthly Volatility:
27.67%
Yearly Volatility:
95.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.91%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.34%
Weekly VaR:
-27.59%
Monthly VaR:
-55.18%
How Much Can the price of
FLGT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-45%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.07
This translates to price declining to:
$6.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLGT is a 289.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 233.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 60.26% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLGT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.893
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.262
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.406
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.397
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.294
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.186
Beta is 32.12% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is 32.68% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
68.58%
Sustainable growth rate is 29.84% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.748
Alpha is 348.61% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4762% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLGT
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is 23.53% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.45%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.42%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.42%
WACC is 58.68% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$31.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 2209.25% above the industry average
EPS:
$14.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$15.14
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$20.89
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLGT
P/E Ratio:
3.31
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
285.14
P/E ratio is -98.84% lower than main peers & is -91.10% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $549.84
FLGT is -92.43% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.32
Price to sales ratio is -86.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 2.75
Price to free cash flow ratio is -88.91% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-5631.78%
Net income growth rate is 2364.04% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.45%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-25.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -72.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
535.86
Interest coverage ratio is -2010.40% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
34.25%
Annual debt growth is -67% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.345
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLGT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -29.23% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.226
Kurtosis
5.184
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.209
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLGT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
309%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
64.08%
Operating profit margin is -156.96% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
309%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.60%
Effective tax rate is 33.42% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
35.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is 67.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
31.43%
Return on assets (ROA) is -111.65% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
5.4
Current ratio is 8.67% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16.6
Cash conversion cycle is -66.62% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 297% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
980.3K
Each employee generates 3167% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
714.2K
Each employee generates 4365% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
268.3K
Each employee generates -12430% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -12430% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 109.15%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -6162.18% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLGT
REVOLUTION MEDICINES, INC. (XNAS:RVMD)
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED (XNAS:LGND)
MYRIAD GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:MYGN)
IGM BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IGMS)
AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:AXSM)
MODIVCARE INC. (XNAS:MODV)
HESKA CORPORATION (XNAS:HSKA)
HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HCSG)
SORRENTO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:SRNE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
953.42M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
219.18M
734.24M
24.79M
68.51M
95.88M
27.37M
2.61M
123.28M
1.11M
1.18M
13.78M
632.31M
610.96M
460.65M
612.07M
156.70M
460.65M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.70M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5012.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.62M
Change in Working Capital :
14.82M
Accounts Receivables:
- 32924.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
14.74M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
188.41M
Investments in PP&E:
- 15360.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 145133.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
353.07M
232.05M
585.11M
164.91M
10.61M
4.70M
765.33M
68.62M
51.00M
35.04M
510.79M
-
34.81M
700.26M
-
1.47B
23.70M
21.09M
52.16M
31.83M
65.10M
141.71M
-
10.92M
10.92M
-
152.63M
3.00K
811.58M
- 12493.0K
507.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
342.46M
1.31B
1.46B
742.84M
21.09M
- 331984.0K
161.17M
14.00K
688.00K
- 456.00K
-
-
-
- 478.00K
- 934.00K
10.00K
188.18M
353.07M
164.89M
188.41M
- 15360.00K
173.05M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLGT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$46.21
$1,210.64
$1,338.16
$1,479.10
$1,634.89