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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fti Consulting, Inc. (XNYS:FCN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FCN
Name:
FTI CONSULTING, INC. (XNYS:FCN)
Sector:
- 216385.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. Steven Gunby
Total Employees:
7,048
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -22.34% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FTI CONSULTING, INC.(FCN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
156.24
One Month Price Target:
$156.51
Six Month Price Target :
$157.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$159.46
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$155.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$156.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$149.82
This week:
$141.88
This month :
$127.52
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
34.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.16%
-11.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$186.02
$172.23
$126.46
$140.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$167.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$164.80
$144.70
$147.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FCN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.05%
Comparison:
FCN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 41.28% higher than the industry
& ratio is 33.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FCN
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.42%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 15.52% above industry average
Classification:
FCN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
FCN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.04%
Weekly Volatility:
4.55%
Monthly Volatility:
9.10%
Yearly Volatility:
31.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.04%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 0.12% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.11%
Weekly VaR:
-9.19%
Monthly VaR:
-18.38%
How Much Can the price of
FCN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-63.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$132.11
This translates to price declining to:
$56.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FCN is a 29.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 11.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.99% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FCN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.52
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.735
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.241
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.275
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.257
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.286
Beta is -76.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is -65.48% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.25%
Sustainable growth rate is 8.77% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.118
Alpha is 114.46% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 748% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FCN
Equity cost of capital:
0.053
Equity cost of capital is -43.16% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.76%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.76%
WACC is -26.26% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$81.46
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.33
Annual revenue growth rate is 146.19% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.48
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -59.00% lower than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.17
-
-
Debt per share
$16.05
EBITDA per share
$10.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
FCN
P/E Ratio:
25.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.62
P/E ratio is 101.85% higher than main peers & is 31.74% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $125.25
FCN is 24.75% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.92
Price to sales ratio is -43.98% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.33
Price to free cash flow: 21.80
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.94% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
72.82%
Net income growth rate is -30.09% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
17.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.26
Interest coverage ratio is -4.45% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 20.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.311
Statistical significance of correlation:
FCN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -39.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.009
Kurtosis
8.502
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.011
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FCN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.76%
Operating profit margin is -5.21% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.62%
Effective tax rate is 4.53% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.56% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.4
Current ratio is 45.23% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
99.1
Cash conversion cycle is 378.87% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.60%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
399.2K
Each employee generates 23% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
50.3K
Each employee generates -39% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
32.6K
Each employee generates -31% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 30.7K
Each employee generates 244% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
245.2K
Each employee generates 244% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FCN
Stantec Inc. (XNYS:STN)
ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:AWI)
AIR LEASE CORPORATION (XNYS:AL)
RYDER SYSTEM, INC. (XNYS:R)
SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO., INC. (XNYS:SSD)
CLEAN HARBORS, INC. (XNYS:CLH)
SCHNEIDER NATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:SNDR)
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPR)
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:SPCE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.81B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.94B
873.38M
-
411.30M
560.27M
-
10.29M
570.56M
3.37M
19.40M
45.31M
354.20M
302.82M
229.79M
289.49M
59.70M
229.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.18M
Differed Income Tax :
2.38M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 287027.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 66471.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 221168.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.41M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 203778.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12607.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 6698.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
271.14M
-
271.14M
853.23M
-
97.02M
1.22B
347.91M
1.24B
29.65M
-
-
106.37M
1.73B
-
2.95B
-
-
-
40.11M
469.82M
509.93M
554.32M
97.11M
817.34M
-
1.33B
345.00K
1.76B
- 135031.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.51B
1.62B
2.95B
-
554.32M
283.2M
-
-
- 19305.00K
- 140000.00K
-
- 3098.00K
-
147.26M
4.16M
- 4420.00K
- 223342.00K
271.14M
494.49M
- 203778.00K
- 12607.00K
- 216385.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FCN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$163.90
$167.28
$170.73
$174.25
$177.84