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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Frp Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:FRPH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FRPH
Name:
FRP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:FRPH)
Sector:
1.31M
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. John Baker
Total Employees:
14
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.72% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FRP HOLDINGS, INC.(FRPH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.38
One Month Price Target:
$57.55
Six Month Price Target :
$58.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$57.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.56
This week:
$51.08
This month :
$44.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
542.53M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
9.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.56%
-18.16%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.45
$64.45
$44.31
$50.31
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.21
$52.25
$53.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FRPH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.59%
Comparison:
FRPH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -2.24% lower than the industry
& is -30.16% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FRPH
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.95%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.98% below industry average
Classification:
FRPH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
FRPH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.40%
Monthly Volatility:
10.79%
Yearly Volatility:
37.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.32%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.77% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.91%
Weekly VaR:
-10.98%
Monthly VaR:
-21.96%
How Much Can the price of
FRPH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.06%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.55
This translates to price declining to:
$13.74
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FRPH is a 54.96% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 32.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FRPH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.53
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.469
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.663
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.36
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.469
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.862
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.235
Beta is -57.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is -64.04% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.50%
Sustainable growth rate is -69.06% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.046
Alpha is 40.45% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 292% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FRPH
Equity cost of capital:
0.068
Equity cost of capital is -48.72% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.94%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.94%
WACC is -39.03% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.60
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -55.39% below industry average
EPS:
$0.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 14.07% higher than the Real Estate Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.48
-
-
Debt per share
$18.87
EBITDA per share
$1.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
FRPH
P/E Ratio:
497.62
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.31
P/E ratio is 2349.65% higher than main peers & is 1552.97% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1.51
FRPH is 3712.07% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
15.92
Price to sales ratio is 204.49% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
Price to free cash flow: 38.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -33.77% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-76.24%
Net income growth rate is -295.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
45.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
3.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -50.67% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.56
Interest coverage ratio is -76.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
88.94%
Annual debt growth is -63% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.422
Statistical significance of correlation:
FRPH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is -22.42% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.008
Kurtosis
9.463
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.299
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FRPH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
353%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.44%
Operating profit margin is -36.22% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
353%
Effective Tax Rate:
-2.45%
Effective tax rate is -112.88% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -98.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is -98.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
40.56
Current ratio is 447.41% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.5
Cash conversion cycle is 535.34% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
38.33%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.4M
Each employee generates 176% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
991.7K
Each employee generates 271% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
36.7K
Each employee generates -52% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
93.9K
Each employee generates -180% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
36.2M
Each employee generates -180% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FRPH
GLADSTONE LAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LAND)
IRSA Propiedades Comerciales SA (XNAS:IRCP)
Fathom Holdings Inc (XNAS:FTHM)
GOODM
THE RMR GROUP INC. (XNAS:RMR)
LMRKO
LMRKP
AFC Gamma, Inc. (XNAS:AFCG)
Fangdd Network Group Ltd (XNAS:DUO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
34.07M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.00M
30.07M
-
6.50M
6.50M
-
21.38M
27.88M
-
2.12M
11.24M
13.88M
2.20M
514.00K
- 368.00K
9.00K
514.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
197.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 3119.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 312.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 467.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.83M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.31M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
833.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
164.52M
-
164.52M
2.59M
-
548.00K
167.66M
-
-
-
143.01M
-
364.20M
507.20M
-
674.87M
-
-
-
324.00K
3.81M
4.13M
178.45M
3.69M
246.50M
-
250.64M
943.00K
338.42M
- 737.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
31.88M
396.44M
647.08M
-
178.45M
13.9M
4.32M
- 2691.00K
2.46M
-
-
-
-
- 771.00K
- 771.00K
-
3.00M
164.52M
161.52M
1.31M
-
1.31M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FRPH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.05
$46.64
$48.29
$50.00
$51.76