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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Frontdoor, Inc. (XNAS:FTDR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FTDR
Name:
FRONTDOOR, INC. (XNAS:FTDR)
Sector:
38.00M
Industry:
Personal Services
CEO:
Mr. Rexford Tibbens
Total Employees:
2,081
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 229.67% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FRONTDOOR, INC.(FTDR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PERSONAL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.93
One Month Price Target:
$23.01
Six Month Price Target :
$23.39
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.82
This week:
$20.45
This month :
$17.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.88B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
81.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.%
-11.57%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.10
$25.79
$17.76
$20.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.55
$20.82
$21.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FTDR
Sharpe Ratio:
-3.76%
Comparison:
FTDR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1420.54% lower than the industry
& is -264.81% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FTDR
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.39%
Monthly returns:
-1.57%
Yearly returns:
0.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -11072.66% below industry average
Classification:
FTDR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
FTDR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.32%
Weekly Volatility:
5.19%
Monthly Volatility:
10.38%
Yearly Volatility:
35.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.47%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -36.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.85%
Weekly VaR:
-10.84%
Monthly VaR:
-21.67%
How Much Can the price of
FTDR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-75.07%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.33
This translates to price declining to:
$5.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FTDR is a 52.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 31.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.96% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FTDR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.60
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.344
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.486
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.025
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.294
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.41
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.447
Beta is -58.79% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.861
Beta is -30.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.260
Alpha is 193.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1658% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FTDR
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -20.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.16%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.08%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.08%
WACC is -6.79% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-98.35
Annual revenue growth rate is 55.15% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-6.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -3076.49% lower than the Personal Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.69
-
-
Debt per share
$7.63
EBITDA per share
$2.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
FTDR
P/E Ratio:
16.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.68
P/E ratio is -49.22% lower than main peers & is -59.87% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $59.97
FTDR is -61.77% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.15
Price to sales ratio is -67.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-98.35
Price to free cash flow: 13.59
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1.20%
Net income growth rate is -100.39% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3273.68%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2021.05%
Debt to assets ratio:
58.79%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -28.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.06
Interest coverage ratio is -90.01% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-35.15%
Annual debt growth is -951% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.64%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.3
Statistical significance of correlation:
FTDR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.482
Stock price is -37.81% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.482
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.048
Kurtosis
3.529
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.474
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FTDR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
189%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.58%
Operating profit margin is 28.43% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
189%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.85%
Effective tax rate is 4.16% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-657.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is 295.50% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is 51.98% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0.7
Current ratio is -31.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-29.4
Cash conversion cycle is -254.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.80%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
780.9K
Each employee generates 93% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
112.0K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
60.1K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.3K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
373.4K
Each employee generates -35% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FTDR
NIKOLA CORPORATION (XNAS:NKLA)
RED ROCK RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:RRR)
LGI HOMES, INC. (XNAS:LGIH)
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY (XNAS:GT)
WINGSTOP INC. (XNAS:WING)
DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DRVN)
SILGAN HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:SLGN)
NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EYE)
THE WENDY'S COMPANY (XNAS:WEN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.63B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
844.00M
781.00M
-
-
518.00M
-
25.00M
543.00M
-
33.00M
34.00M
233.00M
237.00M
125.00M
165.00M
41.00M
125.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.00M
Change in Working Capital :
31.00M
Accounts Receivables:
2.00M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
255.00M
-
255.00M
5.00M
-
22.00M
282.00M
84.00M
512.00M
158.00M
-
-
23.00M
777.00M
-
1.06B
73.00M
17.00M
-
190.00M
122.00M
402.00M
622.00M
8.00M
675.00M
-
1.08B
1.00M
55.00M
- 5000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.39B
- 19000.00K
1.06B
-
639.00M
384.0M
-
1.00M
- 8000.00K
- 4000.00K
-
- 40000.00K
-
- 3000.00K
- 47000.00K
-
- 7000.00K
255.00M
262.00M
47.00M
- 9000.00K
38.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FTDR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$23.97
$24.93
$25.93
$26.97
$28.05