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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Freshpet, Inc. (XNAS:FRPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FRPT
Name:
FRESHPET, INC. (XNAS:FRPT)
Sector:
- 90673.00K
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. William Cyr
Total Employees:
789
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2723.39% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FRESHPET, INC.(FRPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41
One Month Price Target:
$41.21
Six Month Price Target :
$42.28
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$43.56
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.86
This week:
$33.97
This month :
$26.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
47.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.44%
-25.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$55.59
$48.93
$26.41
$33.07
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$46.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$45.35
$35.22
$36.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FRPT
Sharpe Ratio:
0.49%
Comparison:
FRPT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -62.57% lower than the industry
& is -78.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FRPT
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.54%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -22.40% below industry average
Classification:
FRPT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.59
Statistical test of Returns:
FRPT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.75%
Weekly Volatility:
8.38%
Monthly Volatility:
16.75%
Yearly Volatility:
58.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.26% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.67%
Weekly VaR:
-17.14%
Monthly VaR:
-34.28%
How Much Can the price of
FRPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.70
This translates to price declining to:
$6.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FRPT is a 141.97% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 107.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 63.76% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FRPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.579
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.819
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.867
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.367
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.017
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.949
Beta is -2.29% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is 58.32% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.030
Alpha is -336.69% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -189% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FRPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is 32.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.89%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.63%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.66%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.66%
WACC is 61.36% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.71
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.77
Annual revenue growth rate is 128.63% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
158.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 778.11% higher than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.02
EBITDA per share
-$0.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
FRPT
P/E Ratio:
1330.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
81.46
P/E ratio is 1532.86% higher than main peers & is 3342.37% higher than the industry
-
FRPT is -226.32% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.22
Price to sales ratio is 82.11% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.77
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
355.87%
Net income growth rate is 3207.90% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
6.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
3.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.36% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.87
Interest coverage ratio is -100.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.51%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.599
Statistical significance of correlation:
FRPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 39.58% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.138
Kurtosis
6.483
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.5
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FRPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-6.64%
Operating profit margin is -237.55% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.56%
Effective tax rate is -101.39% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.13%
Return on equity (ROE) is -146.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.26%
Return on assets (ROA) is -195.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.48
Current ratio is -45.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-17.1
Cash conversion cycle is -134.76% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-17.32%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
588.4K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2.8K
Each employee generates -103% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 46.1K
Each employee generates -188% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 114.9K
Each employee generates 2988% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
900.5K
Each employee generates 2988% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FRPT
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
464.25M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
293.66M
170.58M
-
-
201.41M
-
-
201.41M
-
2.55M
31.39M
- 2227.00K
- 30823.00K
- 36352.00K
- 33099.00K
187.00K
- 36352.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.01M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 33166.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 26653.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.62M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 34785.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 55888.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3294.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
29.73M
-
29.73M
61.46M
45.31M
6.47M
142.97M
670.07M
-
-
27.84M
-
12.58M
710.49M
1.42B
853.46M
77.15M
6.15M
-
-
13.14M
96.44M
48.96M
-
48.96M
-
145.41M
43.00K
- 253165.00K
- 482.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
495.07M
708.05M
853.46M
-
55.12M
25.4M
-
-
- 59182.00K
-
-
-
-
50.91M
50.91M
-
- 43058.00K
29.73M
72.79M
- 34785.00K
- 55888.00K
- 90673.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FRPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$43.70
$46.42
$49.31
$52.39
$55.65