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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Franklin Street Properties Corp. (XNYS:FSP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FSP
Name:
FRANKLIN STREET PROPERTIES CORP. (XNYS:FSP)
Sector:
- 19724.00K
Industry:
REIT�Office
CEO:
Mr. George Carter
Total Employees:
32
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 22.65% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FRANKLIN STREET PROPERTIES CORP.(FSP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�OFFICE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3
One Month Price Target:
$3.01
Six Month Price Target :
$3.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.98
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.78
This week:
$2.51
This month :
$2.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
320.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
103.24M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.33%
-23.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.02
$3.56
$1.98
$2.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.32
$2.58
$2.68
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FSP
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.88%
Comparison:
FSP, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 24.86% higher than the industry
& is -226.51% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FSP
Daily returns:
-0.09%
Weekly returns:
-0.46%
Monthly returns:
-1.86%
Yearly returns:
-13.59%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 63.82% above industry average
Classification:
FSP, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
FSP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.88%
Monthly Volatility:
15.76%
Yearly Volatility:
54.59%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.99%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -15.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.33%
Weekly VaR:
-16.39%
Monthly VaR:
-32.78%
How Much Can the price of
FSP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.10
This translates to price declining to:
$0.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FSP is a 131.35% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.76% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FSP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.734
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.038
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.497
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.848
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.129
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.059
Beta is -21.87% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.988
Beta is -16.27% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.46%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.23% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.311
Alpha is 32.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1978% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FSP
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -11.10% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.64%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.46%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.46%
WACC is -13.50% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.4
Annual revenue growth rate is 594.86% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
143.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1140.27% higher than the REIT�Office industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -21.55%
Equity growth rate per share is 128.42% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$4.99
EBITDA per share
$1.91
Valuation Analysis Today of
FSP
P/E Ratio:
4.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
19.62
P/E ratio is -76.87% lower than main peers & is -92.64% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $55.49
FSP is -94.59% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.61
Price to sales ratio is -75.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.4
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
613.19%
Net income growth rate is 1118.65% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 44.88%
Dividend yeild: 19.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.09
Previous Dividend: $0.59
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 16.70%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/01/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.09
2021-12-30--$0.32
2021-07-15--$0.09
2022-01-27--$0.09
2021-10-21--$0.09
2021-04-15--$0.09
Dividend growth rate is -245.31% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
65.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.50%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -116.89% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.78
Interest coverage ratio is -279.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-65.32%
Annual debt growth is 1311% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.96%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.575
Statistical significance of correlation:
FSP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.626
Stock price is -8.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.626
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
8.178
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.188
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FSP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.24%
Operating profit margin is -68.50% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
202%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.65%
Effective tax rate is -88.25% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is 181.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.11%
Return on assets (ROA) is 157.17% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
2.14
Current ratio is -209.74% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
6.0M
Each employee generates 163% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
6.2M
Each employee generates 261% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
3.0M
Each employee generates 356% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 616.4K
Each employee generates -1665% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
38.8M
Each employee generates -1665% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FSP
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT, Inc. (XNYS:BRG)
CTO REALTY GROWTH, INC. (XNYS:CTO)
PLYMOUTH INDUSTRIAL REIT, INC. (XNYS:PLYM)
POWER REIT (XNYS:PW)
SACHEM CAPITAL CORP. (XNYS:SACH)
CONDOR HOSPITALITY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:CDOR)
COMSTOCK INC. (XNYS:LODE)
TRINITY PLACE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:TPHS)
HMG/COURTLAND PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:HMG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
192.58M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
95.19M
97.39M
-
15.54M
15.54M
-
69.83M
85.37M
-
29.04M
72.14M
196.82M
12.02M
95.02M
95.22M
620.00K
95.02M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
16.19M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 18094.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 87.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 5783.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3706.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 9772.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 9952.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
7.68M
-
7.68M
77.35M
-
10.70M
95.74M
204.00K
-
-
-
-
1.24B
1.24B
-
1.34B
-
-
-
-
44.70M
44.70M
514.85M
7.69M
522.53M
-
567.23M
10.00K
- 564312.00K
- 195.0K
1.33B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
180.56M
769.89M
1.34B
-
514.85M
507.2M
-
-
- 9952.00K
- 5000.00K
-
- 4843.00K
- 42640.00K
42.44M
- 10044.00K
-
- 29768.00K
10.98M
40.75M
- 9772.00K
- 9952.00K
- 19724.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FSP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.19
$16.09
$16.98
$17.92
$18.92