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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fox Factory Holding Corp. (XNAS:FOXF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FOXF
Name:
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FOXF)
Sector:
- 151315.00K
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Michael Dennison
Total Employees:
4,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 181.92% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP.(FOXF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
90.17
One Month Price Target:
$91.03
Six Month Price Target :
$95.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$100.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$83.61
This week:
$75.51
This month :
$60.85
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.83B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
42.26M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.72%
-14.86%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$120.58
$106.53
$59.76
$73.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$101.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.96
$78.34
$81.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FOXF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.78%
Comparison:
FOXF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 16.21% higher than the industry
& ratio is 22.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FOXF
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.54%
Monthly returns:
2.18%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 12.50% above industry average
Classification:
FOXF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
FOXF has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.59%
Weekly Volatility:
8.03%
Monthly Volatility:
16.07%
Yearly Volatility:
55.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.77%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.55% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.27%
Weekly VaR:
-16.26%
Monthly VaR:
-32.51%
How Much Can the price of
FOXF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.37
This translates to price declining to:
$13.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FOXF is a 129.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.82% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FOXF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.974
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.377
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.239
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.764
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.975
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.397
Beta is 21.66% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is 2.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.14%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.13% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.113
Alpha is 29.62% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 722% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FOXF
Equity cost of capital:
0.148
Equity cost of capital is 2.16% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.69%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.33%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.33%
WACC is 15.81% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.03
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.02
Annual revenue growth rate is 51.01% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
16.78%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -54.89% lower than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$9.44
EBITDA per share
$5.94
Valuation Analysis Today of
FOXF
P/E Ratio:
20.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1083.39
P/E ratio is -98.07% lower than main peers & is 73.50% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $49.31
FOXF is 82.87% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.73
Price to sales ratio is 128.27% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.02
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
75.37%
Net income growth rate is -90.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
37.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
34.7
Interest coverage ratio is 39.35% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-2.22%
Annual debt growth is -110% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 14.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.406
Statistical significance of correlation:
FOXF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is -29.86% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.096
Kurtosis
3.821
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.134
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FOXF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.70%
Operating profit margin is 70.08% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.68%
Effective tax rate is -43.47% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -47.83% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.45%
Return on assets (ROA) is -6.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.05
Current ratio is 42.07% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
26.9
Cash conversion cycle is 0.19% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
332.4K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
59.8K
Each employee generates -18% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
41.4K
Each employee generates -11% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 36.0K
Each employee generates 751% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
192.5K
Each employee generates 751% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 35.80%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -59.28% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FOXF
REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC. (XNAS:REYN)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY (XNAS:COLM)
LIGHT & WONDER, INC. (XNAS:LNW)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
CROCS, INC. (XNAS:CROX)
Ozon Holdings PLC (XNAS:OZON)
MATTEL, INC. (XNAS:MAT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
941.24M
454.67M
49.33M
102.44M
179.10M
76.66M
21.03M
249.46M
-
7.24M
46.94M
251.05M
205.21M
173.88M
196.87M
22.99M
173.88M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 10083.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.03M
Change in Working Capital :
- 196419.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 37781.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4982.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
402.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 143124.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 8191.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
68.77M
-
68.77M
177.86M
314.97M
293.93M
855.53M
237.73M
323.28M
191.72M
-
43.35M
12.41M
808.49M
-
1.66B
157.02M
29.79M
29.40M
-
94.00M
280.81M
399.14M
34.98M
434.12M
-
714.93M
42.00K
606.85M
9.6M
332.57M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.19B
949.08M
1.66B
-
428.93M
360.2M
-
-
- 8191.00K
- 68984.00K
-
-
-
107.62M
38.63M
1.77M
- 110913.00K
68.77M
179.69M
- 143124.00K
- 8191.00K
- 151315.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FOXF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$100.97
$1,542.71
$1,718.90
$1,915.21
$2,133.94