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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fox Corporation (XNAS:FOX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FOX
Name:
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOX)
Sector:
- 24000.00K
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Lachlan Keith Murdoch
Total Employees:
10,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 63.51% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FOX CORPORATION(FOX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.24
One Month Price Target:
$31.39
Six Month Price Target :
$32.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.12
Price Upper limit ($) :
$31.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$29.7
This week:
$27.79
This month :
$24.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
17.92B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
549.12M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.25%
-10.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.41
$35.14
$24.07
$27.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$34.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$33.38
$28.39
$29.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FOX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.10%
Comparison:
FOX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.10% lower than the industry
& is -95.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FOX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.23%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -76.23% below industry average
Classification:
FOX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
FOX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.41%
Weekly Volatility:
5.39%
Monthly Volatility:
10.78%
Yearly Volatility:
37.35%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.94%
Weekly VaR:
-11.05%
Monthly VaR:
-22.10%
How Much Can the price of
FOX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.18
This translates to price declining to:
$7.33
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FOX is a 55.95% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FOX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.88
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.668
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.945
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.595
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.636
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.687
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.2
Beta is -26.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is -26.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -35.74% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.065
Alpha is -221130.81% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -412% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FOX
Equity cost of capital:
0.092
Equity cost of capital is -19.42% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.77%
WACC is -12.51% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.5
Annual revenue growth rate is -0.46% below industry average
EPS:
$2.00
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.58%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -106.31% lower than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.38
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 346.58%
Equity growth rate per share is 387.67% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$13.89
EBITDA per share
$3.84
Valuation Analysis Today of
FOX
P/E Ratio:
15.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
52.64
P/E ratio is -71.31% lower than main peers & is 12.50% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $26.85
FOX is 16.34% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.99
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.75
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.24
Price to sales ratio is -47.46% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.5
Price to free cash flow: 13.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.44%
Net income growth rate is -68.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.39%
Dividend yeild: 3.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.94
Expected next dividend best case: $0.25
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.23
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.23
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.09%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 30/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 03/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/08/2022
Dividend History:
2022-03-01--$0.24
2021-03-09--$0.23
2020-03-03--$0.23
2021-08-31--$0.24
2020-09-01--$0.23
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -90.69% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
66.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
26.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.21%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.02% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.1
Interest coverage ratio is 154.89% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.80%
Annual debt growth is -105% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.581
Statistical significance of correlation:
FOX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is 11.80% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
3.463
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.1
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FOX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
18.33%
Operating profit margin is 225.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
28.12%
Effective tax rate is -76.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.80%
Return on equity (ROE) is 223.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
3.09
Current ratio is 86.01% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 43% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
199.0K
Each employee generates -23% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
105.7K
Each employee generates 18% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FOX
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOXA)
WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP. (XNAS:WMG)
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL (XNAS:PARA)
Yandex NV (XNAS:YNDX)
TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:TTWO)
ROKU, INC. (XNAS:ROKU)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMB)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMK)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.83B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
540.00M
972.00M
-
5.63B
6.60B
1.00M
190.00M
348.00M
2.11B
2.54B
1.12B
1.60B
451.00M
1.12B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
79.00M
Differed Income Tax :
168.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
15.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 877000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 174000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 33000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 57000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
29.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 53000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
7.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 29000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
5.41B
-
5.41B
2.19B
1.14B
137.00M
8.88B
2.14B
3.53B
3.16B
998.00M
3.65B
808.00M
14.29B
-
23.16B
-
845.00M
-
212.00M
1.81B
2.87B
7.63B
1.24B
8.86B
-
11.73B
6.00M
2.41B
- 312000.0K
9.33B
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.07B
11.43B
23.16B
-
8.47B
3.1B
-
-
- 75000.00K
-
-
- 250000.00K
- 150000.00K
- 29000.00K
- 429000.00K
-
- 475000.00K
5.41B
5.89B
29.00M
- 53000.00K
- 24000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FOX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.26
$57.21
$60.59
$64.18
$67.97