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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fossil Group, Inc. (XNAS:FOSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FOSL
Name:
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
Sector:
- 117575.00K
Industry:
Luxury Goods
CEO:
Mr. Kosta Kartsotis
Total Employees:
6,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -50.71% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FOSSIL GROUP, INC.(FOSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LUXURY GOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.31
One Month Price Target:
$4.35
Six Month Price Target :
$4.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.68
This week:
$2.9
This month :
$1.48
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
199.30M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
87.04%
-38.04%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.25
$5.89
$1.37
$2.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.17
$3.16
$3.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FOSL
Sharpe Ratio:
2.20%
Comparison:
FOSL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 153.53% higher than the industry
& is -3.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FOSL
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.84%
Monthly returns:
3.36%
Yearly returns:
12.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 232.27% above industry average
Classification:
FOSL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
FOSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
7.23%
Weekly Volatility:
16.16%
Monthly Volatility:
32.33%
Yearly Volatility:
111.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -63.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-14.68%
Weekly VaR:
-32.82%
Monthly VaR:
-65.65%
How Much Can the price of
FOSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-56%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.89
This translates to price declining to:
$0.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FOSL is a 363.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 296.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.14% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FOSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.132
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.601
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.153
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.799
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.593
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.45
Beta is 12.30% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.644
Beta is -0.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.43%
Sustainable growth rate is -93.22% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.260
Alpha is -1239.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1655% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FOSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.143
Equity cost of capital is -0.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.28%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.28%
WACC is -57.77% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-0.44
Annual revenue growth rate is -318.35% below industry average
EPS:
$0.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$6.73
EBITDA per share
$1.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
FOSL
P/E Ratio:
23.39
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
108.46
P/E ratio is -78.43% lower than main peers & is -83.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $76.93
FOSL is -94.40% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.23
Price to sales ratio is -81.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-0.44
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-80.93%
Net income growth rate is 3.88% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
81.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
55.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
106.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
72.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 51.14% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.64
Interest coverage ratio is 59.48% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.72%
Annual debt growth is -90% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.214
Statistical significance of correlation:
FOSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.389
Stock price is -44.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.389
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
37.634
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.665
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FOSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-45%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.70%
Operating profit margin is -195.35% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-45%
Effective Tax Rate:
49.47%
Effective tax rate is 37.90% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -120.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.01%
Return on assets (ROA) is -282.27% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-16.1x
Current Ratio:
2.17
Current ratio is -3.57% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-10.9
Cash conversion cycle is -114.64% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
7.58%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
142.0K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.6K
Each employee generates -30% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.3K
Each employee generates 454% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.0K
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
- 88.3K
Each employee generates 45% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -100.00%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 300.00% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FOSL
KURA SUSHI USA, INC. (XNAS:KRUS)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DLTH)
RumbleON, Inc. (XNAS:RMBL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�29%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
980.08M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
914.75M
65.33M
-
-
851.06M
-
2.84M
853.90M
-
21.75M
20.66M
100.96M
95.11M
29.55M
58.61M
29.00M
29.55M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.19M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.24M
Change in Working Capital :
- 102123.00K
Accounts Receivables:
51.07M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 115045.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2530.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
162.62M
-
162.62M
-
385.83M
388.77M
937.22M
251.79M
-
-
-
-
- 860905.00K
- 609116.00K
-
328.10M
198.53M
53.36M
26.30M
-
180.79M
432.68M
348.44M
54.24M
403.18M
808.66M
838.16M
511.00K
198.13M
- 74062.0K
302.58M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.77B
427.17M
1.27B
-
401.80M
239.2M
-
255.00K
- 2275.00K
- 4100.00K
-
-
-
36.17M
32.07M
- 3502.00K
- 88755.00K
175.82M
-
- 115045.00K
- 2530.00K
- 117575.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FOSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.80
$22.70
$25.18
$27.93
$30.99