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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Forward Air Corporation (XNAS:FWRD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FWRD
Name:
FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (XNAS:FWRD)
Sector:
52.58M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Schmitt
Total Employees:
4,035
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 140.07% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FORWARD AIR CORPORATION(FWRD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
96.09
One Month Price Target:
$96.7
Six Month Price Target :
$99.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$103.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$95.77
Price Upper limit ($) :
$96.56
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$91.36
This week:
$85.51
This month :
$74.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
26.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.36%
-14.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.03
$107.89
$74.15
$84.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$104.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.42
$87.56
$89.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FWRD
Sharpe Ratio:
2.80%
Comparison:
FWRD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -10.66% lower than the industry
& ratio is 22.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FWRD
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.54%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -12.86% below industry average
Classification:
FWRD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.77
Statistical test of Returns:
FWRD has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.43%
Weekly Volatility:
5.44%
Monthly Volatility:
10.89%
Yearly Volatility:
37.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.19%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -50.98% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.92%
Weekly VaR:
-11.01%
Monthly VaR:
-22.01%
How Much Can the price of
FWRD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-76.26%
This translates to price declining to:
$78.23
This translates to price declining to:
$22.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FWRD is a 55.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FWRD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.804
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.138
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.853
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.751
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.689
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.474
Beta is -23.06% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is 6.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -47.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.076
Alpha is -29.61% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 482% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FWRD
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is 4.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.96%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.96%
WACC is 3.84% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$65.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.22
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.97% below industry average
EPS:
$5.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
11.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -70.05% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.72
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 29.37%
Equity growth rate per share is 366.18% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$10.04
EBITDA per share
$8.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
FWRD
P/E Ratio:
15.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.6
P/E ratio is -47.05% lower than main peers & is -2.29% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $80.69
FWRD is 19.08% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $28.55
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.46
Price to sales ratio is -8.03% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.22
Price to free cash flow: 20.35
Price to free cash flow ratio is -70.27% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.32%
Net income growth rate is -91.08% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.73%
Dividend yeild: 0.94%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.90
Expected next dividend best case: $0.26
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-25--$0.24
2021-11-23--$0.21
2021-05-26--$0.21
2022-03-02--$0.24
2021-08-19--$0.21
2021-03-03--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -219.47% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
44.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
42.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.99% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
58.3
Interest coverage ratio is 59.56% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
31.59%
Annual debt growth is -34% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.53%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.661
Statistical significance of correlation:
FWRD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is 19.88% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.034
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
4.52
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.24
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FWRD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.97%
Operating profit margin is 123.96% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
93%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.22%
Effective tax rate is 7.82% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -30.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is -273.18% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.73
Current ratio is -16.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.2
Cash conversion cycle is -94.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
438.0K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.2K
Each employee generates -15% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.0K
Each employee generates 26% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.0K
Each employee generates 20% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
208.6K
Each employee generates 20% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FWRD
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (XNAS:AVAV)
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:FCEL)
MLHR
HUB GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HUBG)
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.77B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.36B
411.12M
-
44.41M
44.41M
-
172.77M
217.19M
-
3.96M
41.45M
230.67M
193.93M
137.36M
189.97M
47.91M
137.36M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.13M
Differed Income Tax :
1.64M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.76M
Change in Working Capital :
3.12M
Accounts Receivables:
- 30278.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.14M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
62.49M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9908.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
61.63M
-
61.63M
241.15M
-
22.47M
325.25M
377.40M
265.64M
150.64M
-
-
47.88M
841.55M
-
1.17B
54.43M
54.57M
-
-
78.95M
187.94M
269.67M
52.38M
367.09M
-
555.04M
269.00K
350.06M
-
261.44M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.57B
611.77M
1.17B
-
324.23M
262.6M
-
511.00K
- 9397.00K
- 1445.00K
-
- 17780.00K
- 6502.00K
- 3048.00K
- 28775.00K
-
24.31M
61.63M
37.32M
62.49M
- 9908.00K
52.58M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FWRD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$128.06
$137.82
$148.32
$159.62
$171.79