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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Forum Energy Metals Corp. (XTSX:FMC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FMC
Name:
Forum Energy Metals Corp. (XTSX:FMC)
Sector:
- 659100.00K
Industry:
Agricultural Inputs
CEO:
Dr. Pierre Brondeau
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FORUM ENERGY METALS CORP.(FMC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AGRICULTURAL INPUTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
0.155
One Month Price Target:
$.16
Six Month Price Target :
$.16
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$.17
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$.14
This week:
$.11
This month :
$.07
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.04M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
170.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
25.81%
-26.32%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$0.25
$0.20
$0.06
$0.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$0.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$0.18
$0.12
$0.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FMC
Sharpe Ratio:
4.99%
Comparison:
FMC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 33.90% higher than the industry
& ratio is 118.80% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FMC
Daily returns:
0.33%
Weekly returns:
1.63%
Monthly returns:
6.50%
Yearly returns:
42.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 84.91% above industry average
Classification:
FMC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
1
Statistical test of Returns:
FMC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.34%
Weekly Volatility:
14.18%
Monthly Volatility:
28.37%
Yearly Volatility:
98.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.70%
Weekly VaR:
-28.40%
Monthly VaR:
-56.80%
How Much Can the price of
FMC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.08
This translates to price declining to:
$0.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FMC is a 300.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 243.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 56.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FMC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.012
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.431
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.857
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.414
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.023
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.131
Beta is 36.07% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.358
Beta is 13.33% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
20.88%
Sustainable growth rate is 22.79% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.643
Alpha is 116.30% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4096% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FMC
Equity cost of capital:
0.137
Equity cost of capital is 9.96% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.62%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
WACC is 7.09% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$30.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.01
Annual revenue growth rate is -75.79% below industry average
EPS:
$5.92
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
19.55%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 45.34% higher than the Agricultural Inputs industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.07
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 190.28%
Equity growth rate per share is 184.67% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.00
EBITDA per share
$6.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
FMC
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.82
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $87.42
FMC is -99.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $881.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.01
Price to sales ratio is -99.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.01
Price to free cash flow: 0.05
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
53.64%
Net income growth rate is -83.14% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.77%
Dividend yeild: 1335.48%
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.53
Previous Dividend: $2.07
Expected next dividend best case: $0.56
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.48
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.95%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.53
2021-12-30--$0.53
2021-06-29--$0.48
2022-03-30--$0.53
2021-09-29--$0.48
2021-03-30--$0.48
Dividend growth rate is -115.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
89.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
111.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.18% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.04
Interest coverage ratio is -27.40% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.138
Statistical significance of correlation:
FMC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.437
Stock price is -68.36% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.437
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.188
Kurtosis
1.532
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.446
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FMC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.10%
Operating profit margin is 93.45% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
172%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.83%
Effective tax rate is -22.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.07% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is 4.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.38
Current ratio is -21.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
230.9
Cash conversion cycle is 1007.63% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.84%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -91.27% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FMC
ICL GROUP LTD (XNYS:ICL)
Suzano Inc. (XNYS:SUZ)
WESTLAKE CORPORATION (XNYS:WLK)
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (XNYS:ACH)
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:CF)
THE MOSAIC COMPANY (XNYS:MOS)
AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED (XNYS:AEM)
Vedanta Limited (XNSE:VEDL)
RPM INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:RPM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�42%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.20B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.97B
2.23B
302.50M
-
728.10M
-
-
1.03B
-
128.60M
170.70M
1.16B
1.20B
761.30M
939.40M
101.70M
761.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
42.40M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.30M
Change in Working Capital :
- 870900.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 317500.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 631100.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 8100.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 608800.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
365.10M
-
365.10M
2.87B
1.59B
474.00M
5.30B
804.10M
1.46B
2.49B
10.20M
223.40M
614.10M
5.61B
-
10.90B
1.06B
1.04B
94.00M
40.00M
1.69B
3.83B
2.73B
921.70M
3.99B
-
7.82B
18.60M
5.13B
- 435600.0K
- 1655700.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.00B
3.06B
10.88B
-
3.77B
3.4B
-
- 54900.00K
- 55900.00K
-
7.10M
- 8600.00K
- 66800.00K
583.80M
515.50M
- 2500.00K
- 151700.00K
365.10M
516.80M
- 608800.00K
- 50300.00K
- 659100.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FMC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$0.17
$17.35
$19.15
$21.13
$23.31