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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fortive Corporation (XNYS:FTV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FTV
Name:
FORTIVE CORPORATION (XNYS:FTV)
Sector:
196.00M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. James Lico
Total Employees:
18,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FORTIVE CORPORATION(FTV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
62.57
One Month Price Target:
$62.97
Six Month Price Target :
$64.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$67.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$62.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$62.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$59.81
This week:
$56.4
This month :
$50.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
22.43B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
355.70M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.83%
-14.43%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$75.37
$69.52
$49.77
$55.62
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$67.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$66.37
$57.51
$58.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FTV
Sharpe Ratio:
0.66%
Comparison:
FTV, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -51.69% lower than the industry
& is -71.22% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FTV
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.46%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -50.10% below industry average
Classification:
FTV, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
FTV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.16%
Weekly Volatility:
4.82%
Monthly Volatility:
9.65%
Yearly Volatility:
33.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -78.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.41%
Weekly VaR:
-9.86%
Monthly VaR:
-19.72%
How Much Can the price of
FTV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-68.30%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.82
This translates to price declining to:
$19.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FTV is a 39.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.21% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.68% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FTV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.961
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.359
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.916
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.747
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.741
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.289
Beta is -10.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is -9.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.65%
Sustainable growth rate is -74.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.055
Alpha is 567.69% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -351% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FTV
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -7.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.93%
WACC is -9.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -220.71% below industry average
EPS:
$1.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-6.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -206.67% lower than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.48%
Equity growth rate per share is -116.03% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$7.70
EBITDA per share
$3.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
FTV
P/E Ratio:
34.51
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.67
P/E ratio is 84.84% higher than main peers & is -20.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $78.06
FTV is -19.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $11.90
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.54
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.14
Price to sales ratio is -14.91% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.33
Price to free cash flow: 23.40
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-79.33%
Net income growth rate is 191.45% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.79%
Dividend yeild: 0.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.07
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.07
Previous Dividend: $0.28
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.07
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/07/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-26--$0.07
2021-11-24--$0.07
2021-05-27--$0.07
2022-02-24--$0.07
2021-09-09--$0.07
2021-02-25--$0.07
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
28.65%
Net debt to equity ratio:
31.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
16.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.78%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.40% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
27.37
Interest coverage ratio is 137.47% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 29.69%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.737
Statistical significance of correlation:
FTV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is 18.99% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
13.643
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.14
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FTV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.41%
Operating profit margin is 46.30% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
230%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.96%
Effective tax rate is -72.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
6.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is -64.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -24.17% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.96
Current ratio is -59.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-5.3
Cash conversion cycle is -109.63% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 35.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.01%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
298.4K
Each employee generates -7% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
66.9K
Each employee generates 4% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
36.8K
Each employee generates 7% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.9K
Each employee generates 174% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
767.7K
Each employee generates 174% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 10.63%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 258.28% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FTV
FORTIVE CORPORATION (XNYS:FTV)
CANON INC. (XNYS:CAJ)
WORK
SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. (XNYS:SAK)
HUBSPOT, INC. (XNYS:HUBS)
UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP. (XNYS:UMC)
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE COMPANY (XNYS:HPE)
DiDi Global Inc. (OTCM:DIDIY)
PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC. (XNYS:PAYC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�29%
Hold�42%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
5.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.28B
3.09B
367.70M
-
1.89B
-
-
2.26B
-
44.00M
416.30M
1.20B
827.50M
661.80M
748.10M
82.00M
661.80M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
117.80M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
19.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 88000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1400.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
214.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 18800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
900.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
684.30M
-
684.30M
929.00M
553.30M
281.10M
2.45B
412.60M
9.13B
3.79B
-
-
484.30M
13.82B
-
16.27B
576.10M
999.80M
-
-
985.70M
2.56B
2.74B
1.40B
4.14B
-
6.70B
3.60M
6.23B
- 223900.0K
3.56B
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.54B
9.56B
16.26B
-
3.74B
3.1B
-
-
- 17900.00K
- 1156500.00K
-
- 63800.00K
- 25100.00K
912.80M
- 332600.00K
700.00K
- 135000.00K
684.30M
819.30M
214.80M
- 18800.00K
196.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FTV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$64.61
$69.61
$74.99
$80.78
$87.02