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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Forrester Research, Inc. (XNAS:FORR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FORR
Name:
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:FORR)
Sector:
21.40M
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. George Colony
Total Employees:
1,781
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -139.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC.(FORR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
39.8
One Month Price Target:
$40.01
Six Month Price Target :
$41.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$39.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.02
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$37.34
This week:
$34.3
This month :
$28.8
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
761.86M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.93%
-21.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.22
$45.99
$28.38
$33.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$44.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$43.18
$35.29
$36.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FORR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.01%
Comparison:
FORR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -53.02% lower than the industry
& is -55.56% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FORR
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.79%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -35.56% below industry average
Classification:
FORR, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
FORR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.03%
Weekly Volatility:
6.77%
Monthly Volatility:
13.54%
Yearly Volatility:
46.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.88%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -37.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.18%
Weekly VaR:
-13.82%
Monthly VaR:
-27.64%
How Much Can the price of
FORR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$30.25
This translates to price declining to:
$5.97
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FORR is a 95.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 67.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.49% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FORR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.651
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.921
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.652
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.642
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.887
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.297
Beta is -27.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is 6.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.86%
Sustainable growth rate is -37.83% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -102.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -9% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FORR
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is 4.26% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.41%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.41%
WACC is 27.74% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.63
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.73
Annual revenue growth rate is 56.50% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.29
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.16
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -967.64% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.40
EBITDA per share
$3.21
Valuation Analysis Today of
FORR
P/E Ratio:
25.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.77
P/E ratio is 33.64% higher than main peers & is 29.81% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $24.93
FORR is 59.63% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.49
Price to sales ratio is -56.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.73
Price to free cash flow: 9.56
Price to free cash flow ratio is -55.67% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
55.22%
Net income growth rate is -46.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
60.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
4.44%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -67.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.46
Interest coverage ratio is -13.84% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -520% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.99%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.458
Statistical significance of correlation:
FORR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is -10.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.007
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
9.364
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.721
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FORR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.43%
Operating profit margin is -34.53% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
236%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.77%
Effective tax rate is 25.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.37%
Return on equity (ROE) is -40.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
0.82
Current ratio is -50.51% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.16%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
283.8K
Each employee generates -13% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.3K
Each employee generates -58% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -70% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.0K
Each employee generates -235% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
226.0K
Each employee generates -235% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FORR
ANDAW
Aegon NV (XMEX:AEGN)
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CORPORATION (XNAS:GLDD)
GRID DYNAMICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:GDYN)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:HSII)
PAE INCORPORATED (XNAS:PAE)
CONIFER HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CNFRL)
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
505.51M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
207.59M
297.92M
-
60.40M
236.12M
175.71M
24.01M
260.12M
-
3.71M
24.03M
61.02M
37.58M
25.04M
33.28M
8.25M
25.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.37M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1012.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.29M
Change in Working Capital :
7.92M
Accounts Receivables:
16.24M
Other Working Capital:
37.31M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 58.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
22.67M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1262.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 3190.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
112.50M
19.12M
131.61M
70.26M
-
47.49M
249.37M
89.15M
244.07M
59.34M
-
-
9.98M
402.54M
-
651.90M
887.00K
-
-
248.08M
56.51M
305.48M
121.48M
22.52M
143.99M
-
449.47M
241.00K
156.97M
- 4371.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
467.71M
202.43M
651.90M
-
121.48M
9.0M
2.46M
85.00K
- 1912.00K
- 15000.00K
-
- 9459.00K
-
1.72M
- 22737.00K
- 1353.00K
- 3336.00K
114.70M
118.03M
22.67M
- 1262.00K
21.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FORR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.60
$43.19
$45.93
$48.85
$51.96