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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Ford Motor Company (XNYS:F) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
F
Name:
FORD MOTOR COMPANY (XNYS:F)
Sector:
4.49B
Industry:
Auto Manufacturers
CEO:
Mr. James Hackett
Total Employees:
183,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 78.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FORD MOTOR COMPANY(F) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AUTO MANUFACTURERS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.16
One Month Price Target:
$15.27
Six Month Price Target :
$15.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.1
Price Upper limit ($) :
$15.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.21
This week:
$13.03
This month :
$10.9
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
60.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
4.02B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.44%
-11.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.58
$17.53
$10.74
$12.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.42
$13.46
$13.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
F
Sharpe Ratio:
3.63%
Comparison:
F, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -0.75% lower than the industry
& ratio is 59.43% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
F
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.61%
Monthly returns:
2.44%
Yearly returns:
42.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -31.46% below industry average
Classification:
F, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
F has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.12%
Weekly Volatility:
6.97%
Monthly Volatility:
13.94%
Yearly Volatility:
48.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.18% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.28%
Weekly VaR:
-14.05%
Monthly VaR:
-28.09%
How Much Can the price of
F
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.61
This translates to price declining to:
$2.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
F is a 98.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.85% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.36% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
F
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.087
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.538
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.502
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.896
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.703
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.422
Beta is -9.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.758
Beta is -26.60% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
44.63%
Sustainable growth rate is 66.75% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.173
Alpha is -37.17% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1103% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
F
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -21.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.50%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.50%
WACC is -31.55% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.35
Annual revenue growth rate is 0.47% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.85
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
663.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 225.12% higher than the Auto Manufacturers industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.69
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -86.19%
Equity growth rate per share is 116.93% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.45
EBITDA per share
$7.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
F
P/E Ratio:
5.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.83
P/E ratio is -85.24% lower than main peers & is -87.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $118.23
F is -87.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $78.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.45
Price to sales ratio is -98.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.35
Price to free cash flow: 5.63
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
385.45%
Net income growth rate is -91.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.02%
Dividend yeild: 2.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.45
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.05
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -8.33%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/07/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-25--$0.10
2021-11-18--$0.10
2019-10-21--$0.15
2022-01-28--$0.10
2020-01-29--$0.15
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -71.55% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
155.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
210.08%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.73%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.74% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.67
Interest coverage ratio is -118.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.43%
Annual debt growth is -127% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 17.51%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.617
Statistical significance of correlation:
F has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.49
Stock price is 25.87% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.49
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.049
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.089
Kurtosis
5.617
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.657
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
F
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.32%
Operating profit margin is -99.54% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
63%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.73%
Effective tax rate is -111.14% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
39.87%
Return on equity (ROE) is 174.11% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 371.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.17
Current ratio is -75.10% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
55.9
Cash conversion cycle is -74.02% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
745.0K
Each employee generates 43% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
167.8K
Each employee generates -196% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
98.0K
Each employee generates -143% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
24.5K
Each employee generates -186% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
802.4K
Each employee generates -186% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
F
GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY (XNYS:GM)
THE TJX COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:TJX)
Stellantis NV (XNYS:STLA)
COMCAST HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNYS:CCZ)
HONDA MOTOR CO., LTD. (XNYS:HMC)
NIO INC. (XNYS:NIO)
APTIV PLC (XNYS:APTV)
COUPANG, INC. (XNYS:CPNG)
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL, INC. (XNYS:CMG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�75%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
136.34B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
114.65B
21.69B
-
-
11.92B
-
- 1219000.00K
10.70B
192.00M
6.58B
6.32B
30.71B
4.52B
17.94B
17.78B
- 130000.00K
17.94B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.10B
Differed Income Tax :
427.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
41.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2479000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 588000.00K
Other Working Capital:
15.79B
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.14B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
4.49B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 11580000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
21.01B
-
21.01B
65.55B
14.65B
4.93B
106.14B
36.63B
-
-
25.55B
14.99B
69.68B
146.84B
-
252.99B
23.26B
45.36B
-
18.26B
3.47B
90.35B
70.16B
17.16B
117.55B
-
207.90B
41.00M
32.25B
- 8294000.0K
20.99B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
128.19B
44.99B
252.89B
-
115.52B
94.5B
11.69B
- 597000.00K
- 491000.00K
- 14892000.00K
-
-
- 3000.00K
7.10B
- 7793000.00K
- 93000.00K
1.31B
22.05B
20.74B
4.49B
-
4.49B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
F
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.55
$254.26
$276.30
$300.26
$326.30