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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Foot Locker, Inc. (XNYS:FL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FL
Name:
FOOT LOCKER, INC. (XNYS:FL)
Sector:
347.00M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Richard Johnson
Total Employees:
16,555
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -31.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FOOT LOCKER, INC.(FL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.74
One Month Price Target:
$35.98
Six Month Price Target :
$37.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$38.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.98
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$33.1
This week:
$29.84
This month :
$23.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.38B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
94.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.63%
-29.8%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.98
$42.37
$23.50
$29.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$40.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$39.35
$30.92
$32.13
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.34%
Comparison:
FL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 92.76% higher than the industry
& is -41.37% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FL
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.15%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 55.04% above industry average
Classification:
FL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
FL has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.62%
Weekly Volatility:
8.10%
Monthly Volatility:
16.20%
Yearly Volatility:
56.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.38%
Weekly VaR:
-16.51%
Monthly VaR:
-33.02%
How Much Can the price of
FL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-29%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$25.54
This translates to price declining to:
$5.36
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FL is a 133.03% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.92
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.301
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.752
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.788
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.451
Beta is -16.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -11.54% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -35.94% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.023
Alpha is -163.38% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 147% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FL
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is -8.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.11%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.60%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.47%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.47%
WACC is -1.63% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$95.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is 39.63% above the industry average
EPS:
$7.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2.63% higher than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -46.23%
Equity growth rate per share is 61.61% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$26.22
EBITDA per share
$14.53
Valuation Analysis Today of
FL
P/E Ratio:
7.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.76
P/E ratio is -5.93% lower than main peers & is -46.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $109.70
FL is -67.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $59.99
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.38
Price to sales ratio is -56.61% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
31.52%
Net income growth rate is -150.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.55%
Dividend yeild: 3.36%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.49
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.31
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.60%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 25/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.40
2021-10-14--$0.30
2021-04-15--$0.20
2022-01-13--$0.30
2021-07-15--$0.20
2021-01-14--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -119.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
84.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
40.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -48.27% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
72.26
Interest coverage ratio is -68.14% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
398.28%
Annual debt growth is 50% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.485
Statistical significance of correlation:
FL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 7.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
9.746
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.451
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.85%
Operating profit margin is 19.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.27%
Effective tax rate is 7.23% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.71
Current ratio is -2.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-17.6
Cash conversion cycle is -136.84% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
542.4K
Each employee generates 38% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
82.9K
Each employee generates 69% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
49.8K
Each employee generates 95% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.0K
Each employee generates 216% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
252.2K
Each employee generates 216% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FL
CARTER'S, INC. (XNYS:CRI)
H & R BLOCK, INC. (XNYS:HRB)
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:ABG)
VEONEER, INC. (XNYS:VNE)
MERITAGE HOMES CORPORATION (XNYS:MTH)
REVOLVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:RVLV)
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:ALSN)
DILLARD'S, INC. (XNYS:DDS)
ADIENT PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ADNT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�50%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
8.98B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.91B
3.07B
-
-
1.90B
-
152.00M
2.05B
2.00M
19.00M
206.00M
1.37B
795.00M
824.00M
1.15B
324.00M
824.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.00M
Differed Income Tax :
7.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
134.00M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 10000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
398.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
1.96B
-
1.96B
-
1.02B
283.00M
3.27B
3.47B
159.00M
16.00M
342.00M
101.00M
88.00M
4.18B
-
7.44B
658.00M
683.00M
-
-
572.00M
1.91B
2.48B
121.00M
2.60B
-
4.51B
791.00M
2.51B
- 326000.0K
- 47000.00K
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.96B
2.93B
7.44B
-
3.16B
1.2B
-
- 46000.00K
- 54000.00K
-
-
- 44000.00K
- 21000.00K
4.00M
- 61000.00K
-
283.00M
2.00B
1.72B
398.00M
- 51000.00K
347.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$38.83
$65.60
$70.92
$76.69
$82.91