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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Flushing Financial Corporation (XNAS:FFIC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FFIC
Name:
FLUSHING FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FFIC)
Sector:
39.70M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. John Buran
Total Employees:
523
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2746.92% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FLUSHING FINANCIAL CORPORATION(FFIC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
20.23
One Month Price Target:
$20.31
Six Month Price Target :
$20.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$20.14
Price Upper limit ($) :
$20.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.08
This week:
$17.65
This month :
$15.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
600.84M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
29.98M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.02%
-23.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.58
$23.13
$14.88
$17.33
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.33
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.81
$18.12
$18.65
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FFIC
Sharpe Ratio:
0.92%
Comparison:
FFIC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -25.15% lower than the industry
& is -59.66% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FFIC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.69%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.11% below industry average
Classification:
FFIC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
FFIC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.79%
Weekly Volatility:
6.24%
Monthly Volatility:
12.48%
Yearly Volatility:
43.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.13%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.69%
Weekly VaR:
-12.73%
Monthly VaR:
-25.47%
How Much Can the price of
FFIC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-88.22%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.75
This translates to price declining to:
$2.38
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FFIC is a 79.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.99% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.35% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FFIC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.619
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.876
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.355
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.483
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.821
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.977
Beta is -26.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -25.09% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.40%
Sustainable growth rate is -8.03% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.002
Alpha is -84.06% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 12% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FFIC
Equity cost of capital:
0.081
Equity cost of capital is -16.98% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.16%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.16%
WACC is -34.43% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 0.16% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.61%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 79.77% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.77
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 5.93%
Equity growth rate per share is -84.67% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$31.00
EBITDA per share
$5.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
FFIC
P/E Ratio:
7.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
23.05
P/E ratio is -68.36% lower than main peers & is -41.23% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $31.89
FFIC is -36.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $35.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.43
Price to sales ratio is -43.10% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.9
Price to free cash flow: 7.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is -59.57% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
35.95%
Net income growth rate is -34.72% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.46%
Dividend yeild: 4.25%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.86
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.48%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.22
2021-12-09--$0.21
2021-06-03--$0.21
2022-03-10--$0.22
2021-09-02--$0.21
2021-03-11--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -97.96% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
137.53%
Net debt to equity ratio:
109.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
9.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.17% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.08
Interest coverage ratio is 391.77% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.11%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.449
Statistical significance of correlation:
FFIC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -10.32% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.045
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.074
Kurtosis
10.447
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.76
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FFIC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
24.81%
Effective tax rate is 15.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is 0.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -56.99% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
476.6K
Each employee generates 26% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
289.8K
Each employee generates 28% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
154.8K
Each employee generates 9% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
75.9K
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -9% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FFIC
AMTBB
AMERANT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:AMTB)
BLUCORA, INC. (XNAS:BCOR)
E.MERGE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:ETAC)
HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP (XNAS:HTBK)
QCR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:QCRH)
TWCT
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT CORP. III (XNAS:HIII)
CROSSFIRST BANKSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CFB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
249.25M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
97.81M
97.81M
-
-
-
287.72M
37.19M
6.69M
151.58M
-
80.97M
107.69M
26.72M
80.97M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.60M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.19M
Change in Working Capital :
17.42M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 855.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
40.58M
Investments in PP&E:
- 874.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 146788.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
186.41M
286.04M
472.45M
37.31M
-
-
-
71.23M
17.64M
2.42M
914.09M
-
-
1.01B
9.18B
8.17B
-
-
-
-
-
-
929.41M
-
929.41M
8.42B
7.49B
341.00K
508.97M
- 15504.0K
182.00M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
675.81M
8.17B
1.20B
929.41M
743.0M
32.18M
19.82M
- 95668.00K
- 50000.00K
-
- 10845.00K
- 6850.00K
227.47M
159.78M
-
104.68M
186.41M
81.72M
40.58M
- 874.00K
39.70M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FFIC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.32
$38.76
$40.64
$42.61
$44.68