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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Flowers Foods, Inc. (XNYS:FLO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLO
Name:
FLOWERS FOODS, INC. (XNYS:FLO)
Sector:
133.76M
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. A.Ryals McMullian
Total Employees:
8,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -129.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FLOWERS FOODS, INC.(FLO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.99
One Month Price Target:
$27.03
Six Month Price Target :
$27.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$27.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.93
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.09
This week:
$24.98
This month :
$22.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.63B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
212.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.1%
-9.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.16
$29.23
$22.82
$24.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$28.61
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.20
$25.37
$25.78
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLO
Sharpe Ratio:
2.28%
Comparison:
FLO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 73.67% higher than the industry
& is -0.14% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLO
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.79% above industry average
Classification:
FLO, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
FLO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.64%
Weekly Volatility:
3.67%
Monthly Volatility:
7.35%
Yearly Volatility:
25.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.33%
Weekly VaR:
-7.44%
Monthly VaR:
-14.88%
How Much Can the price of
FLO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-51.54%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.58
This translates to price declining to:
$13.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLO is a 5.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -10.04% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.28
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.43
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.609
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.17
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.332
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.44
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.207
Beta is -77.13% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -52.89% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.33%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.24% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.061
Alpha is 382.38% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 385% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLO
Equity cost of capital:
0.050
Equity cost of capital is -29.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.38%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.88%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.88%
WACC is -31.65% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.06
Annual revenue growth rate is -68.05% below industry average
EPS:
$1.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -57.68% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.64
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.04%
Equity growth rate per share is 271.61% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$5.39
EBITDA per share
$2.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLO
P/E Ratio:
26.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.63
P/E ratio is 42.14% higher than main peers & is -31.48% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $39.80
FLO is -32.19% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $55.07
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $24.37
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.28
Price to sales ratio is -44.72% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.06
Price to free cash flow: 42.43
Price to free cash flow ratio is -18.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
0.95%
Net income growth rate is -91.19% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 79.91%
Dividend yeild: 3.15%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.85
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 21/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 23/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.22
2021-12-02--$0.21
2021-06-09--$0.21
2022-03-03--$0.21
2021-09-02--$0.21
2021-03-04--$0.20
Dividend growth rate is -513.77% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
81.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
72.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
35.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.43%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.81% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
15.79
Interest coverage ratio is -93.60% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.11%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 33.70%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.447
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 4.21% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
15.299
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.131
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.54%
Operating profit margin is 35.40% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.03%
Effective tax rate is -43.49% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is 41.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.77%
Return on assets (ROA) is 51.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.44
Current ratio is -47.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
7.7
Cash conversion cycle is -84.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.70%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
501.6K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
50.9K
Each employee generates -55% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
24.7K
Each employee generates -53% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
15.0K
Each employee generates -504% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
281.7K
Each employee generates -504% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLO
RLX Technology Inc. (XNYS:RLX)
THE BOSTON BEER COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:SAM)
Natura & Co Holding SA (XNYS:NTCO)
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (XNYS:HLF)
Nomad Foods Limited (XNYS:NOMD)
PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP COMPANY (XNYS:PFGC)
Post Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:POST)
CHEGG, INC. (XNYS:CHGG)
SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/23/22
Revenue:
4.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.26B
2.21B
-
383.54M
1.77B
-
138.60M
1.91B
22.81M
28.71M
138.60M
453.31M
291.78M
220.12M
286.00M
65.88M
220.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
136.56M
Differed Income Tax :
6.78M
Stock Based Compensation :
21.34M
Change in Working Capital :
- 34007.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10600.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 51716.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
7.75M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
344.61M
Investments in PP&E:
- 135964.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
1/1/22
2021
FY
185.87M
-
185.87M
338.08M
203.46M
18.71M
746.12M
1.09B
545.24M
695.43M
3.15M
-
172.16M
2.51B
-
3.25B
268.50M
65.14M
23.91M
4.04M
182.24M
519.92M
1.14B
29.53M
1.32B
-
1.84B
199.00K
962.38M
2.6M
446.11M
January 1, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
4.17B
1.41B
3.25B
-
1.21B
1.0B
-
- 55474.00K
- 191438.00K
- 581173.00K
-
- 9510.00K
- 175903.00K
491.81M
- 274777.00K
-
- 121605.00K
185.87M
307.48M
344.61M
- 210853.00K
133.76M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$29.68
$30.23
$30.79
$31.36
$31.95