_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:FND) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FND
Name:
FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:FND)
Sector:
- 104237.00K
Industry:
Home Improvement Retail
CEO:
Mr. Thomas Taylor
Total Employees:
7,986
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -133.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS, INC.(FND) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
80.03
One Month Price Target:
$80.85
Six Month Price Target :
$84.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$89.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.67
Price Upper limit ($) :
$80.6
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.48
This week:
$67.63
This month :
$55.23
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.72%
-25.51%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.74
$93.81
$54.32
$66.25
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$89.93
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.39
$70.09
$72.67
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FND
Sharpe Ratio:
3.58%
Comparison:
FND, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.99% higher than the industry
& ratio is 57.04% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FND
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.66%
Monthly returns:
2.64%
Yearly returns:
28.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 10.81% above industry average
Classification:
FND, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
FND has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.44%
Weekly Volatility:
7.69%
Monthly Volatility:
15.38%
Yearly Volatility:
53.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -65.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.93%
Weekly VaR:
-15.49%
Monthly VaR:
-30.99%
How Much Can the price of
FND
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.31
This translates to price declining to:
$12.00
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FND is a 118.70% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.32% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FND
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.135
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.605
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.008
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.307
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.091
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.183
Beta is 53.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.77
Beta is 2.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.69%
Sustainable growth rate is -99.47% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.160
Alpha is 20.66% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1021% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FND
Equity cost of capital:
0.156
Equity cost of capital is 2.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.25%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.25%
WACC is -5.02% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$34.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.05
Annual revenue growth rate is -40.09% below industry average
EPS:
$2.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -85.54% lower than the Home Improvement Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$12.71
EBITDA per share
$4.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
FND
P/E Ratio:
30.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.31
P/E ratio is 51.97% higher than main peers & is 21.19% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.97
FND is 21.32% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.31
Price to sales ratio is 4.80% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.05
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
124.88%
Net income growth rate is -8.53% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
96.09%
Net debt to equity ratio:
101.76%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.65%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -60.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
98.64
Interest coverage ratio is -53.87% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
369.31%
Annual debt growth is -22% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.694
Statistical significance of correlation:
FND has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.656
Stock price is 5.77% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.656
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
5.931
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.674
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FND
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
9.16%
Operating profit margin is 5.64% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.23%
Effective tax rate is -29.28% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -99.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.15%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.21
Current ratio is -29.29% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-66.3
Cash conversion cycle is -191.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
460.8K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
58.0K
Each employee generates 14% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.9K
Each employee generates 35% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.1K
Each employee generates -3867% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
321.9K
Each employee generates -3867% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FND
MOHAWK INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:MHK)
WESTROCK COMPANY (XNYS:WRK)
VAIL RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:MTN)
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC (XNYS:IHG)
LEAR CORPORATION (XNYS:LEA)
PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA (XNYS:PKG)
WILLIAMS-SONOMA, INC. (XNYS:WSM)
PULTEGROUP, INC. (XNYS:PHM)
SERVICE CORPORATION INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:SCI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.68B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.19B
1.49B
-
210.01M
1.12B
908.99M
37.38M
1.16B
-
4.70M
126.39M
463.41M
337.02M
278.39M
332.32M
53.93M
278.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.61M
Differed Income Tax :
237.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
5.98M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115507.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
18.46M
Other Non-Cash Items:
393.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3333.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 100904.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 490.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
31.83M
-
31.83M
97.75M
1.15B
43.37M
1.32B
2.14B
255.47M
151.80M
-
9.00M
10.18M
2.57B
-
3.89B
688.49M
111.25M
16.81M
22.02M
271.56M
1.09B
1.35B
9.22M
1.40B
-
2.49B
106.00K
943.18M
2.1M
457.05M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.34B
1.40B
3.89B
-
1.46B
1.4B
-
-
- 101394.00K
- 1051.00K
-
-
-
- 1838.00K
- 2889.00K
-
- 107616.00K
31.83M
139.44M
- 3333.00K
- 100904.00K
- 104237.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FND
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.06
$107.81
$120.99
$135.79
$152.40