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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fleetcor Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:FLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLT
Name:
FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:FLT)
Sector:
- 143640.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Ronald Clarke
Total Employees:
9,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -157.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(FLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
209.12
One Month Price Target:
$210.53
Six Month Price Target :
$217.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$226.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$208.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$209.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$198.21
This week:
$184.74
This month :
$160.35
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.68B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.95%
-10.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$259.78
$236.86
$158.46
$181.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$229.40
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$224.50
$188.78
$193.74
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLT
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.23%
Comparison:
FLT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -175.00% lower than the industry
& is -153.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLT
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.11%
Monthly returns:
-0.44%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -136.97% below industry average
Classification:
FLT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.46
Statistical test of Returns:
FLT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.65%
Monthly Volatility:
11.31%
Yearly Volatility:
39.17%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.02% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.66%
Monthly VaR:
-23.32%
How Much Can the price of
FLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-80.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$165.45
This translates to price declining to:
$40.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLT is a 64.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.01% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -24.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.711
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.006
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.564
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.825
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.785
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.263
Beta is -4.56% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 8.41% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.18%
Sustainable growth rate is -92.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.167
Alpha is -562.23% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1064% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 5.95% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.41%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.41%
WACC is -7.79% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.4
Annual revenue growth rate is -63.95% below industry average
EPS:
$10.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -104.00% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.13
-
-
Debt per share
$58.87
EBITDA per share
$21.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLT
P/E Ratio:
17.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.28
P/E ratio is -44.42% lower than main peers & is -72.50% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $692.15
FLT is -69.79% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.2
Price to sales ratio is -52.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.4
Price to free cash flow: 18.78
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.19%
Net income growth rate is -99.86% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
152.06%
Net debt to equity ratio:
173.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.9
Interest coverage ratio is -106.59% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
37.97%
Annual debt growth is -65% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.705
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 46.90% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
5.83
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.315
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
42.94%
Operating profit margin is -461.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.23%
Effective tax rate is -19.48% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -71.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -262.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.01
Current ratio is -56.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1099
Cash conversion cycle is -1076.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
310.8K
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
162.5K
Each employee generates 149% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
90.0K
Each employee generates 330% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 14.8K
Each employee generates -175% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
829.4K
Each employee generates -175% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLT
TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:TDY)
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:TYL)
BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNYS:BR)
UIPATH, INC. (XNYS:PATH)
Bill.com Holdings Inc (XNYS:BILL)
UBIQUITI INC. (XNYS:UI)
PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC. (XNYS:PAYC)
DiDi Global Inc. (OTCM:DIDIY)
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE COMPANY (XNYS:HPE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�33%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
617.59M
2.40B
-
520.99M
807.92M
286.93M
294.54M
1.10B
-
113.41M
295.27M
1.58B
1.29B
873.21M
1.17B
294.59M
873.21M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
76.80M
Differed Income Tax :
1.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
32.63M
Change in Working Capital :
- 469249.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
27.71M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 112253.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 31387.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 35864.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.30B
-
1.30B
2.30B
-
2.57B
6.18B
254.43M
5.18B
2.31B
71.06M
-
224.50M
8.05B
-
14.22B
1.96B
1.93B
-
1.59B
620.91M
6.09B
4.42B
220.05M
5.23B
-
11.32B
127.00K
6.47B
- 1263437.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.72B
2.90B
14.22B
-
6.34B
5.0B
-
-
- 67251.00K
- 445063.00K
8.81M
- 422736.00K
-
809.17M
- 49821.00K
68.07M
- 161257.00K
2.09B
2.25B
- 112253.00K
- 31387.00K
- 143640.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$272.89
$294.99
$318.88
$344.71
$372.63