_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Five9, Inc. (XNAS:FIVN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FIVN
Name:
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
Sector:
15.76M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Rowan Trollope
Total Employees:
2,138
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -18.85% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIVE9, INC.(FIVN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
91.44
One Month Price Target:
$91.76
Six Month Price Target :
$93.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$95.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$91.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$92.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.35
This week:
$77.81
This month :
$64.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
70.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.96%
-14.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$119.71
$106.64
$63.17
$76.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$102.39
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.60
$80.45
$83.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FIVN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.87%
Comparison:
FIVN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 75.27% higher than the industry
& ratio is 25.72% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FIVN
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.52%
Monthly returns:
2.07%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 72.35% above industry average
Classification:
FIVN, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
FIVN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.30%
Weekly Volatility:
7.37%
Monthly Volatility:
14.74%
Yearly Volatility:
51.06%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -21.81% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.67%
Weekly VaR:
-14.90%
Monthly VaR:
-29.81%
How Much Can the price of
FIVN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$68.42
This translates to price declining to:
$13.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FIVN is a 110.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 80.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FIVN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.63
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.029
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.456
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.147
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.027
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.616
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.55
Beta is -59.56% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -43.61% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.173
Alpha is 379.44% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1104% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FIVN
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -30.85% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.79%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.79%
WACC is -60.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
29.9
Annual revenue growth rate is 40.77% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
114.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 280.22% higher than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$11.16
EBITDA per share
-$0.37
Valuation Analysis Today of
FIVN
P/E Ratio:
141.65
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
41.29
P/E ratio is 243.03% higher than main peers & is 117.13% higher than the industry
-
FIVN is -227.43% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.79
Price to sales ratio is -10.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
29.9
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
20442.37%
Net income growth rate is 140.97% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
365.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
323.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.86%
Net debt to assets ratio:
58.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.25
Interest coverage ratio is -98.46% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
27.43%
Annual debt growth is -75% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.422
Statistical significance of correlation:
FIVN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -12.01% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.067
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.129
Kurtosis
2.688
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.082
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FIVN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
217%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-11.61%
Operating profit margin is -2.16% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
217%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.22%
Effective tax rate is -67.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-34.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -132.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-6.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is 66.18% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
3.4
Current ratio is 45.99% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.5
Cash conversion cycle is -80.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 31.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-52.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
306.1K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 12.1K
Each employee generates -119% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 35.0K
Each employee generates -267% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.4K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
263.7K
Each employee generates -63% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 55.49%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2240.07% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FIVN
CREE
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
Nuvei Corp (XNAS:NVEI)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC. (XNAS:MANH)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
IPG PHOTONICS CORPORATION (XNAS:IPGP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�29%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
654.49M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
300.16M
354.32M
120.60M
95.99M
309.73M
213.74M
-
430.33M
1.06M
7.96M
49.48M
- 25865.00K
- 76003.00K
- 74788.00K
- 83300.00K
- 8512.00K
- 74788.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.20M
Differed Income Tax :
1.89M
Stock Based Compensation :
39.39M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2637.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.57M
Other Working Capital:
- 17501.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.72M
Investments in PP&E:
- 12398.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 107277.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
100.15M
377.52M
477.67M
80.64M
-
66.28M
624.59M
138.01M
165.42M
36.95M
120.71M
5.02M
97.69M
563.80M
-
1.19B
31.98M
10.14M
2.05M
46.56M
95.11M
183.79M
782.68M
5.65M
790.25M
-
974.04M
70.00K
- 262556.00K
- 3370.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
730.49M
214.36M
1.19B
498.23M
792.82M
692.7M
131.42M
- 569.00K
11.18M
- 31905.00K
-
-
-
1.28M
- 30628.00K
-
9.27M
100.15M
90.88M
28.72M
- 12967.00K
15.76M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FIVN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$95.59
$99.62
$103.81
$108.19
$112.74