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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Five Below, Inc. (XNAS:FIVE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FIVE
Name:
FIVE BELOW, INC. (XNAS:FIVE)
Sector:
- 9702.00K
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Joel Anderson
Total Employees:
6,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -381.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FIVE BELOW, INC.(FIVE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
129.82
One Month Price Target:
$130.77
Six Month Price Target :
$135.52
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$141.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$129.16
Price Upper limit ($) :
$130.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$120.79
This week:
$109.63
This month :
$89.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.27B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
55.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.46%
-25.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$171.72
$152.47
$87.92
$107.17
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$146.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$142.09
$113.38
$117.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FIVE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.79%
Comparison:
FIVE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -37.58% lower than the industry
& is -21.68% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FIVE
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.40%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.94% below industry average
Classification:
FIVE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
FIVE has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.42%
Weekly Volatility:
7.65%
Monthly Volatility:
15.30%
Yearly Volatility:
53.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 37.51% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.96%
Weekly VaR:
-15.56%
Monthly VaR:
-31.11%
How Much Can the price of
FIVE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$95.14
This translates to price declining to:
$19.47
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FIVE is a 119.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FIVE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.84
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.188
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.715
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.203
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.02
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.525
Beta is -14.36% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is -8.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -17.81% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is -78.67% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 298% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FIVE
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -6.56% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.63%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.06%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.05%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.05%
WACC is -11.70% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$52.07
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.74
Annual revenue growth rate is 75.61% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.69%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -35.56% lower than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.60
-
-
Debt per share
$18.28
EBITDA per share
$7.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
FIVE
P/E Ratio:
30.56
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1109.03
P/E ratio is -97.24% lower than main peers & is 42.07% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $100.24
FIVE is 29.51% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.49
Price to sales ratio is -38.71% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.74
Price to free cash flow: 214.98
Price to free cash flow ratio is 251.89% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
19.10%
Net income growth rate is -104.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
109.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
115.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
588.14
Interest coverage ratio is 2274.76% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.673
Statistical significance of correlation:
FIVE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is 41.66% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
10.091
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.569
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FIVE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.41%
Operating profit margin is 90.81% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.32%
Effective tax rate is 7.81% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
28.15%
Return on equity (ROE) is 1878.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 15.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.65
Current ratio is -12.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-26.3
Cash conversion cycle is -140.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
473.8K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
71.5K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.9K
Each employee generates -71% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 1.6K
Each employee generates -104% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
274.8K
Each employee generates -104% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FIVE
DRAFTKINGS INC. (XNAS:DKNG)
WYNN RESORTS, LIMITED (XNAS:WYNN)
PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. (XNAS:PTON)
CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CHDN)
GENTEX CORPORATION (XNAS:GNTX)
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:PENN)
MATTEL, INC. (XNAS:MAT)
CROCS, INC. (XNAS:CROX)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
2.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.85B
1.04B
-
-
677.83M
-
-
677.83M
-
742.00K
89.57M
436.40M
358.52M
261.93M
346.09M
84.15M
261.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.24M
Differed Income Tax :
2.77M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10830.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
3.59M
Other Non-Cash Items:
176.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
66.74M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 232437.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
84.17M
299.29M
383.46M
-
326.71M
57.42M
767.59M
1.65B
-
-
8.68M
-
18.79M
1.68B
-
2.44B
169.39M
147.18M
7.83M
-
149.03M
465.59M
1.01B
1.05M
1.05B
-
1.51B
560.00K
609.85M
- 297322.0K
617.56M
April 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
2.53B
930.64M
2.44B
307.97M
1.16B
1.1B
64.14M
- 76444.00K
- 244739.00K
-
-
-
-
- 6616.00K
- 6616.00K
-
- 184613.00K
84.17M
268.78M
66.74M
- 76444.00K
- 9702.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FIVE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$141.92
$1,867.86
$2,031.76
$2,210.05
$2,403.98