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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Fiserv, Inc. (XNAS:FISV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FISV
Name:
FISERV, INC. (XNAS:FISV)
Sector:
484.00M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Jeffery Yabuki
Total Employees:
44,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -100.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF FISERV, INC.(FISV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
101.44
One Month Price Target:
$101.94
Six Month Price Target :
$104.42
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$107.4
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$101.06
Price Upper limit ($) :
$101.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$96.76
This week:
$90.98
This month :
$80.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
66.62B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
639.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.53%
-16.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$123.16
$113.27
$79.72
$89.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$110.05
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$107.94
$92.80
$94.94
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FISV
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.05%
Comparison:
FISV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -102.74% lower than the industry
& is -102.18% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FISV
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.15%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -87.15% below industry average
Classification:
FISV, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.99
Statistical test of Returns:
FISV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.25%
Weekly Volatility:
5.03%
Monthly Volatility:
10.06%
Yearly Volatility:
34.85%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -16.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.61%
Weekly VaR:
-10.31%
Monthly VaR:
-20.63%
How Much Can the price of
FISV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-71.46%
This translates to price declining to:
$83.02
This translates to price declining to:
$28.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FISV is a 45.60% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 24.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.85% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FISV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.87
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.712
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.006
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.578
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.843
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.835
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.47
Beta is -40.53% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -27.67% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.26% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.073
Alpha is -342.26% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -464% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FISV
Equity cost of capital:
0.091
Equity cost of capital is -20.05% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.59%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.59%
WACC is -12.71% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$25.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.02
Annual revenue growth rate is 256.21% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 337.91% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.90
-
-
Debt per share
$32.08
EBITDA per share
$9.43
Valuation Analysis Today of
FISV
P/E Ratio:
32.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.69
P/E ratio is -10.15% lower than main peers & is -30.56% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $121.52
FISV is -16.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.91
Price to sales ratio is 6.97% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.02
Price to free cash flow: 25.99
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-33.17%
Net income growth rate is -100.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
65.61%
Net debt to equity ratio:
64.62%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.15% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.74
Interest coverage ratio is -79.08% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.67%
Annual debt growth is -55% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.765
Statistical significance of correlation:
FISV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 28.35% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.022
Kurtosis
8.117
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.419
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FISV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.01%
Operating profit margin is -330.58% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.93%
Effective tax rate is -16.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.43%
Return on equity (ROE) is -90.34% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 2537.19% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -55.08% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
64.3
Cash conversion cycle is 71.63% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.59%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
377.5K
Each employee generates -11% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
137.0K
Each employee generates 206% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.6K
Each employee generates 354% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.0K
Each employee generates -265% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -265% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FISV
MARVELL TECHNOLOGY, INC (XNAS:MRVL)
ATLASSIAN CORPORATION PLC (XNAS:TEAM)
KLA Corporation (XNAS:KLAC)
COINBASE GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:COIN)
NXP Semiconductors NV (XNAS:NXPI)
AUTODESK, INC. (XNAS:ADSK)
ANALOG DEVICES, INC. (XNAS:ADI)
FORTINET, INC. (XNAS:FTNT)
SYNOPSYS, INC. (XNAS:SNPS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�4%
Hold�67%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
16.61B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.19B
8.42B
-
-
5.90B
-
-
5.90B
5.00M
690.00M
3.20B
6.03B
2.66B
1.70B
2.02B
443.00M
1.70B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
799.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 183000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
61.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 324000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 60000.00K
Other Working Capital:
32.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 220000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
815.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
863.00M
-
863.00M
2.91B
-
14.67B
18.44B
1.73B
36.54B
13.44B
2.58B
-
2.74B
57.03B
-
75.47B
439.00M
552.00M
227.00M
1.42B
15.32B
17.73B
20.52B
867.00M
25.60B
-
43.33B
8.00M
15.52B
- 640000.0K
16.39B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
14.10B
31.27B
74.60B
-
21.07B
20.2B
3.00M
- 95000.00K
- 100000.00K
- 1086000.00K
43.00M
- 544000.00K
-
510.00M
- 1077000.00K
- 10000.00K
- 372000.00K
2.83B
3.21B
815.00M
- 331000.00K
484.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FISV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$118.32
$125.28
$132.64
$140.43
$148.68